Ray McGovern

If the White House actually thought it could publicly shame China into condemning Russia for invading Ukraine, perhaps this shows it is incapable of understanding the serious challenge it now faces from a Russia-China entente. Two and a half months ago Moscow and Beijing described their strategic relationship as being so close that it "even … Continue reading “Putin No ‘Pariah’ in Beijing”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a liminal moment in post WWII history – and a coda for an overreaching West that failed to read the signs of the times. Russia and China have concluded that their combined strength can protect and promote their individual and mutual interests "from sea to shining sea" – Atlantic and … Continue reading “Biden: NO COMMENT re China on Ukraine”

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s well choreographed decision yesterday to recognize the independence of the pro-Russian Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk points to two key realities: (1) Putin despairs of persuading U.S. allies, Germany and France, to press Ukraine to honor its commitments under the Minsk accords that provide for regional autonomy as well as … Continue reading “What Accounts for Putin’s Assertiveness on Ukraine?”

"’Foiled again!’ rose the cry from those expecting Russian President Vladimir Putin to step out of character and risk war, just as he finally succeeds in getting the U.S. to take Russia’s security concerns seriously – and even address them." Today we can simply recycle the above lede sentence from our article four weeks ago: … Continue reading “Ukraine Invasion Scheduled for Wednesday Canceled”

How to account for the thinking of U.S. official and media hawks who apparently believe Russian President Vladimir Putin can be mousetrapped, or shamed, into invading Ukraine? Part of it seems to be mirror imaging. The so-called "Blob" that runs US foreign policy recalls George W. Bush and Barack Obama sending tens of thousands of … Continue reading “Putin Is Not Stupid and That’s Good”

The leaked text (to Spain’s El Pais) of Washington’s response to Russia’s December security proposals augurs well for an eventual peaceful denouement on Ukraine. The U.S. response may still seem to be only half a loaf, but includes an appetizing sweetener – verification. Washington’s "non-paper" response directly addresses Putin’s chief concern. (Spoiler for any new … Continue reading “US Makes Putin Offer He Can Hardly Refuse”

Fourteen years ago today, when then-ambassador to Russia William Burns, in an IMMEDIATE cable titled "Nyet Means Nyet: Russia’s NATO Enlargement Redlines," reported Moscow’s warning that NATO membership for Ukraine would cross a red line, the Russians could do little more than grouse. Enter from left stage Chinese President Xi Jinping last year with the … Continue reading “China Gives Oomph to Russia’s ‘Nyet’ on NATO”

The eagerly awaited "written response" from the U.S. and NATO to Russia’s security proposals is now in the hands of President Vladimir Putin. And yet there is no sign the West caved in on Moscow’s insistence that NATO rescind its 14 year-old invitation to Ukraine to join NATO. Those who expected the Russians to react … Continue reading “Will Putin Accept Half a Loaf?”

Was Monday’s hyperactivity mostly theater? The Pentagon raised the alert status of 8,500 troops reportedly to bolster NATO’s Quick Response Force, while emphasizing that no final decision had been made to deploy them. And NATO announced that some members were sending ships and fighter jets to Eastern Europe to reassure allies in the region. Adding … Continue reading “Are Neocons Worried at Pace of US-Russia Talks?”

"Foiled again!" rose the cry Friday from those expecting Russian President Vladimir Putin to step out of character and risk war, just as he finally succeeds in getting the U.S. to take Russia’s security concerns seriously – and even address them. Russia’s continued troop reinforcements near Ukraine do not mean, ipso facto, that Russia intends … Continue reading “Godot Likely To Arrive Before Russia Invades Ukraine”