You could say the impending stagflationary tsunami serves him right because Trumpy is an arrogant, clueless know-it-all, who basically knows practically nothing at all. At least with regard to the manifold issues of prosperity, constitutional governance and war & peace now plaguing the nation.
Thus, he was saying quite militantly before February 28th that there is no inflation, claiming during his recent speech to the 2026 Davos conference that—
“We have virtually no inflation… inflation [has been] defeated… Grocery prices, energy prices, airfares, mortgage rates, rent and car payments are all coming down, and they’re coming down fast.”
Not so fast would have been the better expression of it, and yesterday’s PPI report for March surely removed all doubt.
Just a few steps up the goods and services supply chain the inflation rate is already hitting 4.0% per annum. Yet the BibiDon’s Great Persian Gulf Hydrocarbon Disruption is just starting to spread into the arteries of global commerce, where it can be picked up by the standard price indices.
So the 4% wholesale price inflation report for March is as good as it’s going to get for decent while. In fact, when you look at the annualized rate of PPI change (dotted red line) during the month of March, which reflected some of the first round impacts of the Iranian War on oil and gasoline prices, the inflation needle was already posting at +6.1%. And it’s actually been in the 5%+ zone for the last four months.
Accordingly, the slower moving Y/Y figure for the PPI is now on the rise, too. It’s up from a 2.83%rate last October to the aforementioned 4.01% rate for March, but will be climbing sharply higher in the months ahead as the Persian Gulf supply shock works its way through global supply chains and into final demand prices, as depicted in the graph below.
Indeed, this graph is an incisive reminder that the Donald emits made-up bull shit every time he talks economics (along with most other topics). He would have you believe that “Joe Biden” single-handedly ignited an inflationary firestorm after January 2021 and that he has been on the job since January 2025 energetically dosing the flames.
No, not at all. The peak inflation of June 2022 shown above, which registered at +11.15% on a Y/Y basis (blue line), was caused by the spending, borrowing and money-printing baccanhalias of 2020. All of that was the progeny of the phony pandemic “emergency” that the Donald himself proclaimed and promulgated.
In fact, after the Fed belatedly realized that the pandemic era inflation was not “transitory”, its sharp pivot toward restraint after March 2022 did bring the soaring monthly inflation readings back to earth. On this reasonably solid measure of producer prices for final sales, Y/Y inflation fell from 11%in June 2022 to barely 0.3% one year later in June 2023.
That’s right. At the wholesale price level, the inflationary spending, borrowing and printing surge fostered by wrong-headed pandemic policies was largely extinguished 19 months before the Donald took the oath of office in January 2025. He actually had not a cotton-pickin’ thing to do with the sharp reversal shown in the graph above.
Since December 2024, when the PPI rose by 3.44% on a Y/Y basis, however, there has been zero further progress on the inflation front during the Donald’s second watch. The PPI actually drifted to the aforementioned +4.1% on a Y/Y basis as of March 2025, and would be a lot higher had Chairman Powell succumbed to the Donald’s endless hectoring about rate cuts and turned on the Fed’s printing press for a new go-round of monetary inflation.
But here’s the thing. The impending global economic catastrophe triggered by the Donald’s misbegotten war on Iran is going to soon monkey-hammer the reported price indices “like you’ve never seen”, to express it in Trump-speak.
That’s because the futures market price at about $100 per barrel +/- in recent weeks is not telling the whole story. The actual delivered price of physical oil to end markets, represented by measures such as “dated Brent” is now in the $140-150 per barrel range, as shown in the red line below.
That’s more than $30 higher than the standard Brent futures price that flashes on screens the world over. The reason for this huge, never before witnessed gap is that the closure of the SOH (Strait of Hormuz) 45 days ago has created a 15-20 million barrel bow-wave of missing petroleum volumes, which is now fanning accross the global tanker routes and lapping-up on the shores of consuming economy ports and energy processing centers. That $150 per barrel physical oil price, in fact, is the real instantaneous supply/demand clearing price of energy today, and if sustained would readily equate to $6 per gallon of gasoline.
At the moment, however, the paper market (futures contracts) reflects huge common sense speculation that the kinetic war in the Persian Gulf is over and that the Donald will end up doing his TACO man act, while declaring whatever fakafta deal he can cobble together as the greatest win since sliced bread.
Accordingly, the future market is betting that today’s massive supply/demand gap will self-extinguish when a peace deal is reached, and that the Strait will be soon re-opened to full on traffic.
In turn, this implies that upwards of 23.5 million BOEs of petroleum, LNG and derivatives per day—the absence of which is forming today’s global end market bow wave of scarcity—will return to the market upon the expected peace settlement.
In effect,the futures market is looking through the palpable 23.5 million barrel scarcity bow-wave now rolling toward end markets and pricing the expected return to the pre-war 177 million barrels per day of global hydrocarbon supply and demand equilibrium.
Memo: Global Supply (million BOE/day):
- Global petroleum liquids 106.3
- Global Dry Nat Gas 70.2
- Total Global Hydrocarbon supply 176.5
- SOH Exports as % of Global Hydrocarbons 13.3%
Of course, the world won’t be safe from the BibiDon catastrophe until the proverbial mice can bell the cat. And in theory, there should be no difficulty achieving a settlement, which would include the following:
1) A seven- year moratorium on Iranian uranium enrichment to any level–with an Iranian escape clause which says that if Iran is attacked by Israel or the USA for any reason—via another kinetic military assault or economic warfare via sanctions and embargoes—that the moratorium is off and that Iran can activate its mothballed enrichment plants per # 3.
2) IAEA monitored and controlled mothballing of Iran’s current small volumes of 20% (medical grade) and 60% (sub bomb grade) materials, which account for less than 20% of its current 5,000 kilogram stockpile of enriched uranium. Again, only in the event of an attack by the US or Israel, would the IAEA guardianship end, allowing Iran to regain access to its current HEU material.
3) An IAEA guardianship for the mothballing of its 3,000 or so centrifuges—again with an escape clause to regain access if attacked at any time during the seven-year moratorium.
4) An end to all economic sanctions on Iran and the return of several billions of Iranian assets, which have been seized by US and other authorities.
5) A permanent Israeli ceasefire on the Lebanon front coupled with a ban on the transfer of Iranian money, weapons or other items of value to Hezbollah operations. Again, in the event of a kinetic or economic attack on Iran by the US or Israel, these constraints would be lifted, allowing Iran to aid its so-called Lebanon proxy.
6) A jointly operated US/Iran tolling regime in the Persian Gulf designed to generate revenue of about $300 million per day ($2 million per vessel under normal volumes). Annual receipts of $110 billion per year would be split $50 billion to Iran for War damage recovery, $50 billion to the other Gulf states for damage and economic harm mitigation and $10 billion to the USA to accomplish step # 7.
7) The seven-year Iranian enrichment moratorium and the Lebanon cease fire would automatically renew for another five years if by year # five the USA had closed and dismantled all of its bases in the Persian Gulf region and removed the 5th fleet from the area on a permanent basis.
8) Iran would be guaranteed access to third-party Uranium enrichment services during the seven year moratorium or again, failure of guaranteed supply would release it from the 7-year enrichment moratorium.
Such a deal would be more than fair to both sides and would both—
- Ensure on a de facto basis that Iran doesn’t get a nuke.
- Remove any need for Iran to get one as a deterrent.
Nevertheless, it is highly unlikely to be embraced by Trumpy for one reason and one reason alone: Bibi Netanyahu, who needs perpetual war to stay out of jail, would tell him “f+ck no”. Period.
In the alternative, however, the Donald is truly up Shit’s Straight without a paddle. He will not be able to choke off Iran’s oil exports and revenue flow via the current joke of an Embargo. That’s because Iran will block all exports from the rest of the Gulf if the Donald actually orders the Navy to stop, board and seize carriers attempting to move Iranian oil and other cargoes through the Strait.
And that’s where the rubber will me the road. Beijing knows it is dealing with the TACO MAN and will not blink when it comes to replenishing the 6 million BOE/day of Persian Gulf hydrocarbon supplies it was purchasing prior to the war— once the current 23 m/BOE bow wave of hydrocarbon shortage hits its ports.
Either way, the Donald is a gonner. We can only hope that its due to capitulation to China, which would put him on the Dunce Chair for the rest of his term.
Still, that would be far better than a prolongation of the current $150 per barrel bow wave, $6 gasoline by October and a blithering gang of new Dem Senators and Congressman with revenge and impeachment on their minds come next January.
David Stockman was a two-term Congressman from Michigan. He was also the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan. After leaving the White House, Stockman had a 20-year career on Wall Street. He’s the author of three books, The Triumph of Politics: Why the Reagan Revolution Failed, The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America, TRUMPED! A Nation on the Brink of Ruin… And How to Bring It Back, and the recently released Great Money Bubble: Protect Yourself From The Coming Inflation Storm. He also is founder of David Stockman’s Contra Corner and David Stockman’s Bubble Finance Trader.
