This is the fourth year I’ve attended and written about the perennial flocking of Washington's military courtier class, otherwise known as the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) annual conference, always at the luxurious Willard Continental Hotel, always...
Deferring to Petraeus, NIE Failed to Register Taliban Growth
Despite evidence that the Taliban insurgency had grown significantly in 2010, the U.S. intelligence community failed to revise its estimate for Taliban forces as part of a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Afghanistan in December. That unusual decision was in...
COIN and the Afghan Refugee Crisis
“Will you decide what men shall live, what men shall die? It may be, that in the sight of Heaven, you are more worthless and less fit to live than millions like this poor man's child….” – Charles Dickens, A Christmas Carol, 1843 "Have yourself a merry merry Christmas...
The Pentagon’s Mad Men
Woodward’s Exposé Documents What We All Suspected
The talk in Washington of late has been Bob Woodward's book Obama's Wars. The books are piled in the front of every bookstore in town, and people are whispering in the usual “inside baseball” way, about who in the Washington security bureaucracies dissed whom to...
Long Warfare Theory
"No nation ever profited from a long war." - Sun Tzu Sun Tzu's immortal The Art of War translates into a shade over 10,000 words of American English, roughly 40 pages of aphoristic wisdom presented in language that probably 75 percent of public-school third-graders...
Nobody Should Die for COIN
Obama’s Afghanistan Strategy Increasingly Under Siege
Monday's release by WikiLeaks of tens of thousands of classified documents detailing the travails of the U.S. military in Afghanistan and Pakistan's secret support for the Taliban from 2004 through 2009 comes amid a growing crisis of confidence in the nearly...
The Great Myth: Counterinsurgency
There are moments that define a war. Just such a one occurred on June 21, when Special Envoy Richard Holbrooke and U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Karl Eikenberry helicoptered into Marjah for a photo op with the locals. It was to be a capstone event, the fruit of a...