JERUSALEM – Mahmoud Abbas does not fall into the category of outgoing, charismatic leaders with a penchant for bold political initiatives. Gray, circumspect, and technocratic are the adjectives often chosen to describe him.
But the Palestinian president is now in the midst of possibly the greatest gamble of his long political career. It is an uncharacteristic high-stakes maneuver that could redefine Palestinian politics and reshape relations between his people and Israel.
If the Islamic Hamas movement does not accept a plan calling for the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel within 10 days, he has announced, he will call a national referendum on the issue in 40 days’ time. The move implies recognition of the Jewish state, anathema to Hamas, which has a clause in its charter calling for the destruction of Israel.
"If you do not reach an agreement, I would like to tell you frankly that I will put this document to a referendum," Abbas declared last Thursday in Ramallah at the opening of a "national dialogue" between Hamas and Fatah, aimed at defusing violent clashes between the two rival groups.
The document Abbas is referring to was drafted in an Israeli jail by security prisoners belonging to Hamas and to Abbas’ Fatah movement. It calls for a peace treaty with Israel if the Jewish state withdraws from all of the areas it captured during the 1967 Mideast War – the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem. Palestinians view the security prisoners as being at the forefront of their struggle for independence, and so their decisions carry considerable weight.
Israel, without delay, and Hamas, with some delay, have rejected Abbas’ referendum gambit.
Israeli Justice Minister Haim Ramon, a member of the ruling Kadima (Forward) Party, said the prisoners’ document could not serve as the basis for negotiation because it included the "right of return" for Palestinian refugees to Israel.
The vast majority of Israeli Jews strongly oppose this demand, fearing it would mean the end of Israel as a Jewish state because the country would be swamped by hundreds of thousands of returning Palestinian refugees. "I have yet to see a Palestinian who will give up on the right of return," Ramon said.
At first caught off guard by Abbas’ declaration, Hamas leaders have been increasingly vocal in their rejection of his ultimatum, calling it an attempt to overturn the will of Palestinian voters who propelled the Islamic movement to a stunning victory in parliamentary elections in January.
Infuriated by Abbas’ move, Mushir al-Masri, a Hamas legislator in Gaza, attacked the referendum idea as a "coup against the democratic choice" of the Palestinian people.
Palestinian Foreign Minister Mahmoud al-Zahar on Monday issued the strongest rejection yet by a senior Hamas official. "Nobody will recognize Israel, there is no need for a referendum," he said during a visit to Malaysia. Besides, he said, Hamas has no money to hold a referendum.
Abbas’ referendum ultimatum must be seen as part of the showdown between him and Hamas, which has been raging ever since the Islamic movement defeated Fatah, his nationalist secular party, in the January election. The most recent point of contention has been the decision by Hamas to deploy a 3,000-strong militia in Gaza as a policing force – a move that Abbas and Fatah have strongly contested.
Internecine violence has erupted in recent weeks, usually in the form of Fatah-Hamas firefights, but there have also been assassination attempts on the lives of senior security officials. Ten people have died so far in these clashes. Fatah and Hamas began meeting over the weekend in an effort to defuse the tensions, but Abbas’ ultimatum has rocked the talks.
The surprise move by the Palestinian leader, who supports dialogue with Israel, is meant to pressure Hamas into moderating its anti-Israel positions.
The referendum declaration, says Ahmed Tibi, an Arab lawmaker in the Israeli parliament, has pushed the Islamic movement into a corner. "Hamas is in a Catch-22 situation," Tibi told IPS. "If it agrees to the prisoners’ initiative, it will be a victory for Abu Mazen [Abbas]. If Hamas rejects it, it will lose many, many points among the Palestinian public. The Palestinian street is ready to support the prisoners’ proposal."
Tibi, who once served as personal adviser to Yasser Arafat, believes that some 70 percent of Palestinians will support the proposal, which he says is the basis "on which a historical agreement [between Israel and the Palestinians] can be reached."
But he does not expect Hamas to accept it, and predicts an ongoing showdown, possibly with Abbas issuing a presidential decree ordering a referendum and Hamas trying to block it in parliament. "Abu Mazen," he says, "has put the ball clearly in Hamas’ court."
But the referendum ploy has a dual purpose: it is also meant to counter Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s plan for a unilateral withdrawal from large parts of the West Bank, where some 240,000 settlers live in over 120 settlements. Abbas’ announcement came as Olmert returned from Washington last week, where he won qualified support for his plan from President George Bush.
The Palestinians strongly oppose unilateral moves, fearing Israel will impose borders, robbing a future Palestinian state in the West Bank of territorial contiguity. If Abbas can show, however, that he is a serious negotiating partner, and that he has a serious proposal to put on the table, then Olmert might have to relinquish unilateralism and return to bilateral talks.
But Abbas has gambled. And if his roll of the dice fails to tame Hamas, he could rapidly find himself a lame-duck president stripped of any leverage on the international stage.
