Faced with its justifications for the troublesome conquest of Iraq regularly being torn to shreds, it seems that Washington is poised to make a tactical retreat from the Middle East. Some serious analysts are interpreting this as the sign of Empire’s coming implosion, and with good reasons. A retreat from Iraq, Kosovo, Bosnia, or any place that has been trumpeted as a triumph of Empire’s virtuous hegemony would obviously undermine the elaborate fiction that keeps the world in awe of United States’ might, not ideals.
Certainly the interventions and occupation in the Balkans have proven to be an exercise in frustration. Because the Iraq experience has been much deadlier, Empire’s failure to establish control is a lot easier to notice. These days, however, the veneer of Imperial power seems to be rapidly wearing off in the Balkans as well. Maybe the Empire really is imploding.
Pretense of Control
Earlier this month, NATO had been planning to reduce its occupation force in the Serbian province of Kosovo. But a full retreat should not be expected any time soon.
Two more Serbs were killed last Friday, their murderers “unknown” as usual. The murders went largely unnoticed, especially after a car bomb almost killed a minister in the Kosovo Albanian government Saturday. It was almost certainly a feud between factions of the KLA, a typical example of political discourse in the occupied province. Even though the UN/NATO occupation is precisely what has enabled this ongoing campaign of terror against Serbs and Albanian political rivals of the KLA, the “lack of security and reconciliation” is being cited as a reason for its continuation.
That suits the Albanians fine, it seems, as they push harder than ever for Kosovo’s official separation from Serbia. At the recent inauguration of the Kosovo Assembly, non-Albanians refused to enter the lavish new building erected with Imperial donations because the paintings exhibited in the halls depicted scenes of exclusively Albanian history. Polite requests by the UN viceroy to remove the paintings were rebuffed, and more Albanian symbols are scheduled to appear. Instead of protesting such flagrant (but expected, really) misuse of its donations, the EU promises more money and political support. Things in Kosovo may have slipped out of control a long time ago, but the pretense is crucial for maintaining the illusion of Imperial infallibility.
That illusion is slipping in Bosnia as well, as the makeshift country will likely miss a deadline for being considered for NATO’s junior vassal program called “Partnership for Peace.” Apparently, ethnic politics has blocked the appointment of a joint defense minister, one of the NATO conditions for admission. Everything in Bosnia has been ethnic politics for over 14 years, though; that’s what caused the war to begin with; that’s the main problem of its tormented existence. Yet the legions of Imperial occupiers and bureaucrats still don’t seem to grasp that.
Vassals No More?
After two months of onerous politicking, Serbia appears to have a new government, with Vojislav Kostunica as Prime Minister. Two major vassals of the Empire have seen their political credibility shrivel in the process. Having refused to negotiate in good faith, the Democratic Party learned it was not the only hope of the coalition government, which turned to Milosevic’s Socialists instead. Kostunica’s coalition partner, Serbian Renewal Movement leader Vuk Draskovic, also suffered a setback when his own party overruled his refusal to cooperate with the Socialists. This effectively forestalled the likelihood of Draskovic taking over the Foreign Ministry he was rumored to have desired.
Needless to say, these developments did not please the people who pulled most of the strings in Serbia until recently. “We don’t think that this decision goes in the right direction,” lamented EU’s foreign policy chief Javier Solana. EU’s foreign ministers “warned of consequences” Monday if Serbia did not comply with its “political criteria.” Meanwhile, the United States demanded the continued extradition of indicted government officials to the Inquisition, claiming it was “part of an agenda Serbia has to have at the moment.” Both Washington and Brussels also threatened to cut off political support and financial aid to Belgrade.
Unfortunately for them, the aid has been lacking for a long time, and they have little political leverage on the ground right now. US Ambassador William Montgomery, the man who helped create the previous governing coalition and controlled it for years, abruptly retired recently. Well-informed sources indicate the cause was a personal scandal involving Ms. Montgomery. Even if he were to remain, the new players would not be inclined to obey him unquestioningly the way Djindjic’s cronies did.
Note that Kostunica is not trying to antagonize the Empire – far from it. Last week he called the “European determination” of his government “unambiguous and unquestionable.” He defended the Socialists’ support to the government as part of what democracy means in practice, and denied that Slobodan Milosevic had any influence as a result. But he did say that serving up new heads to the Inquisition was “not a priority.” Instead, reports Reuters,
“his government would aim to cut public spending and taxes, make it easier to start small firms, attract foreign investors, press ahead with privatizations and keep under control a foreign debt estimated at $13.8 billion.”
A responsible government that practices sound policies and refuses to be bullied – inasmuch as this is possible in Serbia – would really be a major change in relation to the past decade or so. No wonder the Empire is perturbed.
Too Sick To Go On
To make matters worse, even the Hague Inquisition seems to be tottering these days. First Head Inquisitor Carla Del Ponte went crazy, and now the chief “judge” in the Milosevic case, Richard May, has bowed out on account of ill health.
“He has been slowly broken by the case — you could see him aging,” quoted the New York Times one of May’s colleagues, and he wasn’t talking about Milosevic. The toll on the arrogant Briton of running a show trial and bullying a spirited defendant, while protecting dozens of false witnesses, must have been truly overwhelming.
The London Independent, which just days ago furiously argued Milosevic was guilty of genocide, deemed May’s departure “a significant blow to the credibility of the proceedings.” The process itself may be in jeopardy. Under the Inquisition’s own rules, Milosevic would have to agree with continuing the trial with a replacement appointed by the UN Secretary-General. Otherwise, the proceedings would have to restart. And while it is certainly possible to force the continuation on Milosevic, such an act would be rightly seen as violating his rights. Being a kangaroo court, the Inquisition relies on the outside perception of their supposed fairness, so that would hardly do.
Richard May’s resignation may have made it impossible for the Inquisition to proceed and convict Milosevic – which it needs to do in order to justify its existence – without utterly discrediting itself in the process.
Cautious Optimism
Of course, there are plenty of reasons to hold off on the celebration just yet. However badly things seem to be going for the Empire and its vassals, this could merely be a temporary setback. After Vietnam, the American imperial project retreated into the shadows, gathered its strength and waited for the opportunity to manifest itself. It came after the abrupt end of the Cold War, through the 1991 “coalition war” in Iraq and the creeping “humanitarian intervention” in the Balkans, the result of which is today’s American Imperium.
But in case it is true, that the hegemony is imploding, the implications are obvious. Empire’s unraveling won’t solve any of the problems caused by its presence, and in fact may temporarily create new ones as the vassals try to cope with the power vacuum. If the aftermath of the Soviet collapse is anything to go by, everyone’s in for a rough patch. However, there will also be a genuine opportunity to expand liberty and curb new imperialist ambitions. Such an opportunity was already lost once, in 1989-91, with catastrophic consequences. If this is truly a second chance, undeserved as it may be, perhaps this time we can all do better.
