JERUSALEM – When he began contemplating his first visit to the United States as prime minister a few weeks ago, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert must have thought that his plan for a unilateral withdrawal in the West Bank would win him accolades in Washington and would guarantee a successful trip. After all, his predecessor, Ariel Sharon, had been hailed around the world for pulling Israel out of Gaza and evacuating all the Jewish settlements there just nine months ago.
But while Olmert can be sure of a warm embrace from his American hosts, he cannot expect an enthusiastic response to a Gaza-like West Bank withdrawal, which he has called his "convergence" plan.
When he meets George Bush on Tuesday, he will find a president who is facing a host of domestic troubles, ever dipping opinion poll ratings, is far more concerned by Iran and Iraq, and does not want to annoy the Europeans, who are counseling against more unilateral moves by Israel.
For now, the Bush administration is playing for time, not having the stamina to deal with a new, controversial initiative like Olmert’s plan, which will require considerable political and diplomatic maneuvering if it is to get sufficient international backing. That is why U.S. officials can be heard talking about reviving the "road map" for peace and the need to engage Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in negotiations, before further unilateral moves by Israel can be considered.
If Olmert views Abbas as a lost cause, the Americans still hope the Palestinian leader will be able to prevent the situation in the territories, where tensions between Hamas and Fatah are at the boiling point, from descending into chaos.
For now, the U.S. administration also wants to focus its energies on maintaining pressure on the Hamas-led Palestinian government in a bid to force the Islamic movement to moderate its anti-Israeli positions – or, alternatively, to precipitate new elections. For this, it requires European assistance, and the Palestinians have done a good job convincing European Union leaders that another unilateral Israeli withdrawal would be counterproductive. They want negotiated settlement.
The Americans are also anxious to keep European leaders on their side in their efforts to pressure Iran into curtailing its nuclear ambitions. The potential regional impact of a unilateral withdrawal in the West Bank – especially with regard to Jordan – will also not have escaped the administration. The Jordanians are petrified that an Israeli exit from the West Bank and the completion of the massive separation barrier Israeli is constructing there will force the Palestinian population in the territories to turn toward Amman – a development that could destabilize the Hashemite kingdom where Palestinians are a clear majority.
In a letter to Bush published late last week, Jordan’s King Abdullah warned that further unilateral action by Israel "will have negative repercussions on the Palestinians, [and] Arab and Muslim countries." Any deterioration in the Palestinian situation, he added, could have adverse consequences for the security of his country.
Olmert arrives in Washington as Bush is desperately trying to resurrect his flagging presidency. In addition to his slump in the opinion polls, the president is confronting a steep rise in fuel prices, widespread demonstrations over immigrant rights, a scandal in the intelligence community, and an ever deepening quagmire in Iraq. Hardly a propitious time for requesting strong American backing – political and financial – for a highly complex withdrawal plan.
Olmert has political woes of his own. He may have won Israel’s national election in late March, but his Kadima (Forward) Party won just 29 seats in the 120-seat parliament, hardly a ringing endorsement of his convergence plan, which he placed squarely at the center of his campaign.
The Americans, who are fully aware of this vulnerability, will be keen to hear Olmert outline the contours of "convergence" – sources close to the prime minister have said his plan entails withdrawal from 91.5 percent of the West Bank. But they will not offer any commitments.
Instead, when Bush and Olmert sit down together, the main issue on the agenda is likely to be Iran’s nuclear program and efforts aimed at preventing Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. In a transcript of an interview Olmert gave to CNN and which was released Sunday as he headed for the United States, the Israeli leader asserted that Iran was just a few months away from acquiring the technological know-how that would enable it to produce a nuclear bomb.
In that same interview, Olmert also let it be known in no uncertain terms that he does not hold out much hope for negotiations with the Palestinians. He said Abbas lacked the political clout to speak on behalf of his own people.
"He is powerless. He is helpless. He’s unable to even stop the minimal terror activities amongst the Palestinians," the Israeli leader said, indirectly confirming his strong belief in unilateralism. "So how can he represent that government in the most crucial, complex, and sensitive negotiations, about which there are so many divisions within the Palestinian community?"
For now, convergence is on the American back burner. But with Olmert making his views on the prospects of talks with the Palestinians patently clear, and with Hamas unlikely to want to head for the negotiating table any time soon, unilateralism might be back on the agenda later this year.
Having initially hoped to be feted in Washington for his withdrawal plan, Olmert has had to lower his expectations of his visit. But he will recall that when Ariel Sharon first sent his most senior aide to Washington to raise the idea of a unilateral Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, Condoleezza Rice almost ran him out of town.
