Donald Trump has promoted the idea – amplified by much of the international media – that protesters inside Iran are calling for U.S. military intervention and the overthrow of their government.
At the same time, Trump is threatening Iran with major military action, demanding not only changes in how protesters are treated, but that Iran abandon what he claims is a pursuit of nuclear weapons and relinquish its long-range missile capabilities and other defensive systems.
It’s true that many Iranians are protesting in response to severe economic hardship, which has reached unprecedented levels. But a major driver of Iran’s inflation and currency collapse has been the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration, which have sharply constrained Iran’s economy and access to global markets.
What is largely absent from Trump’s rhetoric – and from much of the dominant media narrative – is that these protests are not purely organic. External actors are also involved, including Israel’s intelligence agency, Mossad, and the Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK), an exiled Iranian group that has committed acts of terror for decades.
Mossad involvement has been openly acknowledged
On social media, Mossad posted a message directed at Iranians stating: “Go out together into the streets. The time has come. We are with you – not only from a distance and verbally. We are with you in the field.”
Israeli Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu reinforced this openly, stating: “When we attacked in Iran during ‘Rising Lion,’ we were on its soil and knew how to lay the groundwork for a strike. I can assure you that we have some of our people operating there right now.”
Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo compounded this message of encouragement by tweeting: “Happy New Year to every Iranian in the streets. Also to every Mossad agent walking beside them.”
And last year, Mossad Director David Barnea confirmed Israel’s ongoing activities in Iran, declaring: “We will continue to be there, as we have been.”
The MEK’s involvement is also self-declared
We also know that the MEK, previously characterized by U.S. officials as exhibiting “cult-like behavior,” is actively participating in the protests and publicly organizing around them.
On its own website, the MEK claims responsibility for organizing protest activity today in Iran, and states that it has identified “1,449 martyrs” as of January 30:
“The nationwide uprising against the religious dictatorship in Iran continues to shake the regime’s foundations on Friday, January 30, 2026. While the regime’s Minister of Science has openly admitted to the continued detention of students accused of affiliation with the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), rebellious youth across the country are intensifying their campaign to dismantle the regime’s apparatus of suppression… Meanwhile, the human cost of freedom continues to rise. The PMOI has released the names of 450 additional martyrs [bringing the total to 1,449], revealing the brutal extent of the regime’s crackdown on women and children. Despite the repression, support for the resistance grows, with national athletes joining the call for a democratic republic.”
Founded in Iran in 1965, the MEK carried out armed attacks against the Shah’s government and U.S. targets in the 1970s, and initially supported the 1978-1979 Islamic Revolution.
But soon afterward the group took up arms against Iran’s new leadership, was banned, and driven into exile. Its later decision to fight alongside Iraq in the Iran – Iraq War is widely regarded in Iran as a betrayal.
The U.S. State Department designated the MEK a terrorist organization in 1997, yet the U.S. still supported the group during that time, and the designation was eventually lifted in 2012 as part of President Obama’s broader U.S. geopolitical strategy.
TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! … HELP IS ON ITS WAY
This external involvement in Iranian protests has also been openly encouraged at the highest levels of U.S. politics. On Jan. 13 Trump publicly urged Iranian protesters to escalate and seize state institutions, writing:
“Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! … HELP IS ON ITS WAY.”
Taken together, these statements and admissions shatter the simplified narrative now dominating public discussion. While real economic grievances may be driving protests inside Iran, they exist alongside overt encouragement and involvement by foreign intelligence services, exiled opposition groups, and senior U.S. political figures. Ignoring that context distorts public understanding of what is unfolding and risks normalizing escalation under the guise of supporting the people of Iran.
Some final questions
In the unlikely event of regime change in Iran, have Trump and Israel seriously considered what comes next?
Who would actually govern the country? Not the Shah’s polarizing son – a figure who has spent decades in Maryland, lacks broad support inside Iran, and whose viability even President Trump has publicly questioned.
Does Trump believe Iran can be managed the way the U.S. has attempted to manage Venezuela – or the way Israel and the U.S. are attempting to manage Gaza?
How many troops on the ground would be required to occupy and administer a country of roughly 90 million people, the vast majority of whom already view the United States with deep hostility?
Does Trump understand – or care – that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is regarded by many Shiite Muslims as a religious authority with lineage tied to the Prophet Muhammad? Does he expect the roughly 200 million Shiite Muslims worldwide to remain passive in the face of a direct assault on their religion?
Groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Shiite-led government in Iraq understand that if Iran falls, they’re next – and that without Iranian support, they would be far easier to defeat. Do Trump and Israel seriously expect these actors to lay down their arms?
If the United States attacks Iran again and Iran inflicts substantial damage in return – to the point where Iran appears to be prevailing – how likely is it that the U.S. and/or Israel would escalate by using nuclear weapons to salvage “victory”?
In 1951, Iran’s democratically elected leader Mohammad Mosaddegh was named Time Magazine’s Man of the Year. Just two years later he was overthrown in a CIA-backed coup. Seventy-five years on, Iran is in a far worse position and now faces what many see as an existential threat.
So the final question is unavoidable: if you were an Iranian citizen, would you want your country to possess nuclear weapons if that were the only credible deterrent left? And if not, what realistic alternative exists for Iran to break the stranglehold imposed by the United States and Israel?
Chris Ernesto is the webmaster and co-founder of St. Pete for Peace, a non-partisan antiwar organization providing peace oriented education events and services to the Tampa Bay, FL community since 2003.
