As military, economic and political events continue to spiral badly in Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky has undertaken the largest cabinet shuffle since the war began.
Zelensky says that the cabinet shuffle is intended to reshape the government so that “Ukraine will achieve all the results we need” heading into a difficult period. Specifically, Zelensky says the new cabinet is designed to improve relations with NATO, to advance Ukraine’s European Union membership, and to attract foreign investment for Ukraine’s domestic defense industry. However, it is not clear how the new appointees will better advance those goals. It is possible that behind the facade, there is a more desperate purpose for the cabinet changes. It is possible that the changes are a response to the failing fortunes of, and support for, both the war and Zelensky.
And those fortunes are failing. There are signs that point to the beginning of the Ukrainian front’s collapse. And as the PR victory of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia begins to fade, it is revealing what looks increasingly like the trade of a Pyrrhic victory for the loss of the Donbas. Winter is coming, and half of Ukraine’s nonnuclear energy has been destroyed. Though the Ukrainian economy has improved somewhat since the shock of the war, 7.3 million Ukrainians face moderate or severe food insecurity and 29% of Ukrainians live in poverty. Zelensky’s popularity, which was once in the stratosphere, has plummeted to between 42% and 55%. Support for negotiating an end to the war is now higher in Ukraine than support for continuing to fight it.
Zelensky’s real purpose in dramatically shuffling his cabinet may have more to do with addressing the falling fortunes of the war and of his own control and popularity.
The cabinet shuffle cut deep. According to David Arakhamia, the parliamentary head of Zelensky’s party, it affected over 50% of the cabinet. Though many of the names are not well known outside of Ukraine, some are. Those who were cut or who resigned include Justice Minister Denis Maliuska, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine Olga Stefanishyna and Rostislav Shurma, the Deputy Head of the Office of the President. Vladimir Kudritskiy, head of Ukraine’s electricity system was also removed. But the most famous name to go was Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba.
The reasons given for the firings seem to have more to do with addressing the negative appearance of the war effort. Kudritskiy was fired to assuage the “public outrage over frequent power outages and accusations of failing to adequately protect Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.” It is hard to see how he is to blame for that or how his replacement could do better. Two international board members rejected the official explanation and said Kuritskiy’s firing was “politically motivated.” Both of them resigned in protest.
Kudritskiy was not the biggest name to be sacrificed for the failing war effort. In explaining Foreign Minister Kuleba’s firing, Zelensky blamed him for failing to acquire more weapons from the West and for failing to get permission to fire long-range missiles into Russian territory. Zelensky said Kuleba “lacks the energy to push forward the supplies of weapons.” As with Kudritskiy, it is hard to see how Kuleba can be blamed for these failures or how his successor will do better.
Kuleba’s firing is not popular everywhere. The Economist reports that Zelensky intended to replace Kuleba as early as April but the U.S. State Department pressured him not to.
Kudritskiy and Kuleba may have been sacrificed for the failings of the long war. But more immediate failings and pressures could have played at least as large a role. Since the hope of peace talks was squashed in the early days following Russia’s invasion, the war has dragged on with little hope that continuing to fight will bring any benefit. Zelensky’s popularity is waning, and harsh criticism has been levied at him from both political and military sources for the Kursk gamble. Rather than divert Russian troops from the existential Donbas front, it seems only to have diverted the best trained and equipped Ukrainian troops away from it. The result is the threat of the complete loss of the Donbas.
In the face of that public despair, political and military criticism, Zelensky may have felt the need to consolidate power. That was the purpose of his last major cabinet shuffle in 2020. And it could have been the real purpose of Kuleba’s firing.
The Economist reports that several sources describe the cabinet changes as a consolidation of power around Zelensky and his very close and powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. “They had loyal people around them,” one opposition MP said, “But they now have even more loyal ones.” Zelensky has appointed Andrey Sybiha to replace Kuleba. Sybiha was previously the deputy head of the President’s Office, which is led by Andrii Yermak. His primary job was to assist Yermak and Zelensky. Sybiha led diplomatic efforts in the President’s office, from where he, reportedly, overtook Kuleba as lead in Ukraine’s foreign affairs. The Kyiv Independent reports that “given Sybiha’s close ties to Yermak,” Zelensky could have seen him as more loyal.
Sybiha’s appointment may be part of a larger pattern. The New York Times reports that “the overhaul has largely resulted in filling senior positions with officials who have largely been beholden to Mr. Zelensky for their political rise.” Others agree that “in reality, these reshuffles work towards even greater centralization and monopolization of power.”
All of this suggests that Zelensky’s large and unexpected cabinet shuffle may reflect a growing reckoning with the realization that the larger war and the Kursk offensive are not going well. Officials seem to have been fired to assuage anger over failings in the war and hired to consolidate power around the president.
Ted Snider is a regular columnist on U.S. foreign policy and history at Antiwar.com and The Libertarian Institute. He is also a frequent contributor to Responsible Statecraft and The American Conservative as well as other outlets. To support his work or for media or virtual presentation requests, contact him at tedsnider@bell.net.
