When the US-Iran conflict escalated earlier this year, the immediate concern centered on oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz. But the real danger was never confined to crude oil. The crisis has evolved into a broader energy, logistics, fertilizer, food and financial...
On May 31, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam gave a televised address in which he condemned Israel’s invasion and intensified attacks on southern Lebanon as a dangerous escalation, warning that a “scorched-earth policy” will never bring security to Tel Aviv: “Israel...
In the Asian shock, four transmission channels play a role. In the case of oil, elevated risk premium is coupled with physical tightening via Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Lliquefied natural gas (LNG) poses a more severe constraint than oil and thus structural...
Israeli military aggression has “reshaped both the physical and ecological landscape” of southern Lebanon, according to the Lebanese report (which does not consider the impacts of Israel’s latest barrage of attacks this spring). In her foreword, Lebanon’s minister for...
With the U.S.-led Pax Silica framework, the Philippines is becoming a dual-use platform where military strategy and supply-chain restructuring are converging. Over the past year, the Philippines has moved decisively into the front line of US–China friction, thanks to...
At the peak of the crisis, oil surged to $110–116/bbl. But it remains volatile at $90–100 after ceasefire pause. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) took an even harder hit. Oil price surged more than 50%, but LNG soared as much as 143% - a 3-year high. In Asia, supply risk...
Originally set for March, the high-stakes summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was postponed for about "five or six weeks," due to the U.S. focus on military operations in Iran. The delay suggests that the Trump administration...
In the past, PH targets comprised mainly the EDCA sites. Now they include the planned ammo manufacturing sites. Manila is moving from a US logistical enabler to a huge regional military hub, like Ukraine a few years ago. Last week, the Pentagon disclosed that the...
On February 28, 2026, President Trump announced the start of Operation Epic Fury. In a surreal twist, he described the mission's primary objective as defending the American people by eliminating "imminent threats" from the Iranian regime. Trump specifically cited the...
In August 2025, President Marcos Jr. said that “a war over Taiwan will drag the Philippines, kicking and screaming into the conflict." Pushing for preparation, the government has boosted US-Philippine military cooperation, military modernization, joint military...
