Tuesday night, while the vast majority of South Koreans slept blissfully unaware, President Yoon Seok-yeol declared martial law. Though shocking, it was ultimately a hapless scheme that may end his political career and quite possibly lift the wet blanket smothering the dormant Korean peace process.
With plummeting approval ratings and embattled by scandal after scandal, Yoon cast his die around midnight, announcing that he would “eradicate pro-North Korean forces and protect the constitutional democratic order” from the opposition faction of “shameless pro-North Korean anti-state forces who are plundering the freedom and happiness of our citizens.” (President Yoon was seeing Reds everywhere but, given his proclivity for soju, maybe he was just drunk.)
Standoff in Parliament
Following the declaration, lawmakers attempted to access parliament while South Korean police and military personnel surrounded the facility and reportedly moved to prevent its members from entering. A legend is already growing about opposition leader Lee Jae-myung scaling the fence around parliament to take part in the vote (he even broadcast his infiltration live on YouTube).
The forces surrounding parliament were reportedly “completely armed” and included the 1st Airborne Special Forces Brigade once involved in the infamous 1979 coup, among other units specializing in counter-terrorism operations. By 11 pm., troops began to enter the main office of the National Assembly while assembly staff and aides attempted to block access by setting up barricades and spraying fire extinguishers so lawmakers could finish casting their votes.
A majority of lawmakers, 190 in total, still managed to assemble and summarily reject the declaration. While it seems clear that the troops involved did not yield maximum force, they were reportedly reluctant to withdraw after the vote and only did so once the President accepted parliamentary censure and lifted martial law around 4:30 am, a mere six hours after its declaration.
A full account of the events Tuesday night will come in due time. What is clear is that, while the images of police and troops surrounding parliament invokes dark memories of the coup by Chun Doo-hwan on December 12, 1979 (a day of infamy in South Korean history brilliantly captured in the film 12.12: The Day), this was ultimately a flaccid, desperate – and seemingly final – act by the President.
The aftereffects of his gambit, however, will not be so short-lived.
Just Give Me a Reason
The Democratic Party opposition, which holds a majority in congress with 170 of the 300 seats, has finally been given its “golden ticket” for proceeding with impeachment after a long line of scandals surrounding President Yoon that came close, but didn’t quite fit the bill. His career is likely over, but nothing is certain until the votes are cast.
A motion for impeachment has already been tabled and can take place as early as Friday at noon. Together with the 22 independent members in the assembly, it would require eight of the 108 lawmakers form President Yoon’s People Power Party (PPP) to pass. The PPP has officially ruled out going along with impeachment, but – perhaps crucially – the vote will be anonymous, so toeing the party line may not necessarily be a concern. As per Reuters, if the motion passes, the President must step aside and the current Prime Minister serve in his stead until the Constitutional Court makes a ruling, which can take up to six months.
Adding to the chaos factor here is that the court currently only has the minimum six sitting members required. Three posts are empty, the appointments put off due to political division within parliament. By law, the court must have at least seven members to rule on cases. Though it waived this requirement previously, it is “not clear if it would take up the impeachment motion without the full nine justices.”
The Stakes
While nothing is guaranteed, there will be great incentive to pass the impeachment motion to avoid the mass demonstrations that led to the downfall of former President Park Geun-hye. Yoon’s presidency was already deeply unpopular, and the events of Tuesday evening have been shocking to the collective conscience of South Koreans and harmful to their image abroad – something Koreans typically care about deeply.
His declaration of martial law came amid an ongoing campaign by the opposition Democratic Party, who hold the majority in parliament, to impeach the state-appointed prosecutors doggedly attempting to make one accusation or another stick to Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung. Mr. Lee, who lost a historically tight race to President Yoon in the last election by a 0.7 percent margin, has spent more than two years handcuffed by legal proceedings and is forced to appear in court on an almost daily basis. He even survived a serious assassination attempt likely inspired by this lawfare campaign (including an absurd charge of orchestrating remittances to North Korea against national security law).
If the impeachment fails, it is unclear how the public will react or, indeed, how the hawkish President Yoon might proceed with what would seemingly be carte blanche to do virtually anything without political consequence moving forward. If, however, the proceedings go through (which this author considers more likely, especially given the anonymity of the vote), the election date will have been sped up by as much as two years and the legal pressure on opposition leader Lee will likely be lifted, ensuring his ability to run for office – and virtually guaranteeing his victory. This will be a very good thing for the peace process.
An Unexpected Gift for Peace?
During Mr. Yoon’s presidency, South Korea has adopted a stark anti-diplomacy stance toward North Korea and strengthened its trilateral military partnership with the United States and (more controversially) Japan – an arrangement that is destructive for peace in the region. South Korea has also advanced increasingly provocative military drills that were suspended during the previous Moon Jae-in presidency when peace talks were at their peak. The US in turn has docked nuclear submarines in South Korea for the first time since 1981 among other provocative acts. In response, North Korea has gone so far as to label South Korea a “principal enemy” and has disavowed peace talks.
However, North Korea has generally been willing to talk when the other side is serious, whether it be the United States or South Korea. The problem for South Korea has been a lack of political will and courage. History may forget, but it was originally the South Korean President Moon Jae-in who initiated the diplomatic efforts between the US and North Korea by unilaterally meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to bring down boiling tensions during the first Trump administration. His activism forced the US to the table. It was only after South Korea stood back and adopted a passive approach that diplomacy between North Korea and the US failed, thwarted by the hawks in the Trump administration (and John Bolton in particular), who favored maximum pressure over concession.
Lee Jae-myung, however, is widely considered to be a “firebrand” with a far different approach to politics than his mild-mannered predecessor, former President Moon. There is little question that South Korea will become more open to diplomatic initiatives with respect to North Korea if impeachment goes through and he eventually comes to office.
Incoming US President Donald Trump has stated a willingness to resume talks with North Korea. Whether he is – or ever was – serious about North Korean diplomacy is certainly up for debate, but with war in the Middle East and Ukraine front-burner issues, peace talks with the DPRK are never going to be a priority for the US unless South Korean leadership forces the issue – something impossible to imagine under President Yoon. Now that his 2027 expiry date has potentially been sped up significantly due to his foiled plot, peace in Korea may once again be on the table.
Yet, even if Lee Jae-myung is eventually able to take power, the question, as always, will be “what are the preconditions for diplomacy?” To that end, Mr. Lee recently stated, “We desperately need practical diplomacy that prioritizes national interests, not ambiguous… diplomacy.” He also expressed optimism that the incoming Trump administration would resume peace negotiations.
While diplomatic initiatives are not likely to go far if denuclearization remains the core issue, a “pragmatic” and activist approach from South Korea might have a chance to finally start a serious Korean peace initiative. This would never have happened with President Yoon in office. In that sense, his foolish, desperate power grab may have been an unexpected gift for the Korean peace movement.
Stuart Smallwood is a freelance Korean-English translator currently located in Jeonju, South Korea. His previous works have also appeared at Antiwar.com and he can be reached at stusmallwood[at]protonmail.com.
