JERUSALEM – The signs have been so surprisingly positive that they elicited upbeat assessments even from some of Israel’s more circumspect leaders. "We are witness to the beginning of positive developments on the Palestinian side," Israel’s military chief, Lt. Gen. Moshe Ya’alon, said over the weekend.
Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz added Sunday that "the year 2005 may be a turning point in which there will no longer be any soldiers" in the Gaza Strip or the cities of the West Bank.
The unusually optimistic remarks were the result of the deployment Friday of hundreds of Palestinian policemen in the northern Gaza Strip to stop militants firing rockets at Israel. The order by newly elected Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas follows the renewal of security coordination between the sides, and has raised hopes that calm might finally prevail after more than four years of bloodshed.
There was more promising news Sunday, with Abbas saying he was close to reaching a ceasefire deal with militant Palestinian groups for an end to attacks on Israelis, and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon telling his cabinet that if calm prevailed he would halt Israeli military actions in the occupied territories. Militants have said they will not lay down their weapons unless Israel ceases its operations, including the assassination of their leaders.
"As long as there is quiet, there is no reason why we should act, certainly not while Abu Mazen [Abbas] is taking his first steps," Mofaz said.
The number of attacks has declined dramatically since Abbas headed for Gaza last Tuesday following several days of rocket fire by militants at the southern Israeli town of Sderot, and threats by Israel to launch an extensive raid in response.
In northern Gaza – the area from which the makeshift rockets have been launched – Palestinian security forces fanned out over the weekend and began patrolling in pickup trucks and searching cars for weapons. Officers said they had received orders to take control of the area. They were told they could use their guns to stop the rocket fire.
During the Intifada, the name given to militant Palestinian struggle, Palestinian policemen disappeared from the streets. As the confrontation intensified, Israel targeted police positions, and many members of the security forces joined armed groups like the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, which is linked to Abbas’ ruling Fatah party.
Developments on the ground in Gaza in recent days are "the start of a fundamental change," Yochanan Tzoreff, senior research scholar in Palestinian affairs at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya near Tel Aviv told IPS. "Soon, we will be able to get a sense of the full dimensions. Abu Mazen [Abbas] went to Gaza, banged on the table, and demanded that the rocket fire stop."
Gazans have viewed the firing of the Qassam rockets, as they have been dubbed by Hamas, with mixed feelings. Hopelessly outmatched otherwise, Palestinian militants have found in these rockets an effective weapon, both because Israel has failed to halt the rocket attacks and because the missiles have spread fear among Israelis who live in areas where they have landed.
But the launches have carried a high price tag. They have resulted in fierce Israeli military raids into towns in the northern part of Gaza that have disrupted life there and resulted in extensive damage to houses and infrastructure.
Now, the new Palestinian leader is hoping the intense fatigue and economic distress among his people after more than four years of fighting will help him convince them and the armed groups, at least for now, that violence has undermined the Palestinian national interest, not promoted it.
"What we are witnessing is the beginnings of a ceasefire," says Tzoreff. "Things are still very fragile, but the Palestinian opposition groups realize that in the elections the public gave Abu Mazen a mandate to follow his line against violence. The Palestinian public realizes that the rocket fire does them more harm than good [because of Israel’s military response]. Now, Israel must act with restraint – that will help Abu Mazen."
Abbas is hoping he can confound the many skeptics – on both sides – who believe him when he says he wants to end the violence, but do not think he can, and who know he is serious about returning to the negotiating table, but are doubtful Sharon will meet him there.
The Palestinian leader believes that if he can end the violence, the Israeli prime minister will face intense domestic and international pressure to start talking about the issues at the heart of the conflict – borders, refugees, and the future of Jerusalem. Sharon has said he is ready to coordinate with the Palestinians his plan to withdraw from Gaza in the summer, but he does not believe it possible to achieve a comprehensive peace agreement in the foreseeable future, and so does not want to discuss substantive issues.
If Abbas fails to get Sharon to the negotiating table, his people will ultimately lose patience with him. To do so, he will need the Americans. He will have been listening intently last Thursday to U.S. President George W. Bush’s inauguration speech, particularly the declaration that "liberty in our land increasingly depends on the success of liberty in other lands."
If Abbas can emerge as the leader of something resembling a democratic society, then allegiances may begin to shift and the almost unequivocal support Israel has enjoyed from Bush during the Intifada will erode. What greater prize could there be for a president who has declared his intention to spread democracy to the Middle East, but who has become bogged down in Iraq, than an emergent Arab democracy?
Both sides know that the sudden optimism in recent days could be instantly extinguished by a fatal Palestinian attack or an Israeli assassination of a senior militant. Abbas’ efforts to get armed groups to agree to a ceasefire would be complicated by Israeli military actions, like the ones that resulted in the deaths in shooting Thursday of two 12-year-old Palestinian boys, one in Gaza and one in the West Bank.
And if the rocket fire resumes – a 17-year-old Israeli girl injured in a recent Qassam attack died Friday of her wounds – Sharon will be under pressure again to send the military into Gaza.
