Erdogan Wants to Be Turkey’s Lone Strongman. What If He Gets What He Wants?

When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for a presidential and parliamentary election June 24 – jumping the gun by more than a year – the outcome seemed foreordained. After all, the country is under a state of emergency. Erdogan has imprisoned more than 50,000 of his opponents, dismissed 140,000 from their jobs, jailed a … Continue reading “Erdogan Wants to Be Turkey’s Lone Strongman. What If He Gets What He Wants?”

The US Returns to ‘Great Power Competition,’ With a Dangerous New Edge

The Trump administration’s new National Defense Strategy is being touted as a sea change in US foreign policy – a shift from the “war on terrorism” to “great power competition,” a line that would not be out of place in the years leading up to World War I. But is the shift really a major … Continue reading “The US Returns to ‘Great Power Competition,’ With a Dangerous New Edge”

Nuclear War: A Thousand Buttons

When President Donald Trump bragged that his nuclear “button” was bigger and more efficient than North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un’s “button,” he was perpetuating the myth that the leaders of nuclear-armed nations control their weapons. But you do not have to be Trump, Kim, Vladimir Putin, Theresa May, Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi, Mamnoon Hussain, or … Continue reading “Nuclear War: A Thousand Buttons”

Asia’s Other Nuclear Standoff

With the world focused on the scary possibility of war on the Korean Peninsula, not many people paid much attention to a series of naval exercises this past July in the Malacca Strait, a 550-mile long passage between Sumatra and Malaysia through which pass over 50,000 ships a year. With President Trump and North Korean … Continue reading “Asia’s Other Nuclear Standoff”

The Tortured Politics Behind the Persian Gulf Crisis

The splintering of the powerful Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) into warring camps – with Qatar, supported by Turkey and Iran, on one side, and Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), supported by Egypt, on the other – has less to do with disagreements over foreign policy and religion than with internal political … Continue reading “The Tortured Politics Behind the Persian Gulf Crisis”

These Nuclear Breakthroughs Are Endangering the World

At a time of growing tensions between nuclear powers – Russia and NATO in Europe, and the US, North Korea, and China in Asia – Washington has quietly upgraded its nuclear weapons arsenal to create, according to three leading American scientists, “exactly what one would expect to see, if a nuclear-armed state were planning to … Continue reading “These Nuclear Breakthroughs Are Endangering the World”

Erdogan Isn’t as Strong as He Looks – That’s What Makes Him Dangerous

At first glance, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s drive to create an executive presidency with almost unlimited power through a nationwide referendum looks like a slam-dunk. The man hasn’t lost an election since 1994, and he’s loaded the dice and stacked the deck for the April 15 vote. Using last summer’s failed coup as a shield, … Continue reading “Erdogan Isn’t as Strong as He Looks – That’s What Makes Him Dangerous”

Is Trump Moderating on Foreign Policy? Not in the Least

“Chaos,” “dismay,” “radically inept” – those are just a few of the recent headlines analyzing Donald Trump’s foreign policy. In truth, disorder would seem to be the strategy of the day. Picking up the morning newspaper or tuning on the national news sometimes feels akin to opening up a basket filled with spitting cobras and … Continue reading “Is Trump Moderating on Foreign Policy? Not in the Least”

How Trump Could Blunder Into War With China

In his Jan. 13 testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, secretary of state nominee Rex Tillerson made an extraordinary comment concerning China’s activities in the hotly disputed South China Sea. The United States, he said, must “send a clear signal that, first, the island-building stops,” adding that Beijing’s “access to the those islands is … Continue reading “How Trump Could Blunder Into War With China”

A Global Nuclear Winter: Avoiding the Unthinkable in India and Pakistan

President-elect Donald Trump’s off the cuff, chaotic approach to foreign policy had at least one thing going for it, even though it was more the feel of a blind pig rooting for acorns than a thought-out international initiative. In speaking with Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, the New York Times reported, Trump said he wanted … Continue reading “A Global Nuclear Winter: Avoiding the Unthinkable in India and Pakistan”