On September 17, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif, visited Saudi Arabia. Something bigger than expected happened.
“Building on the historic partnership extending for nearly eight decades,” Sharif and Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, the Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia, signed the Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement.” Unlike many defense pacts, this one seems to be a full-blown alliance, clearly stating “that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.”
The regional and international orders will be shaken up by this defense agreement. It is significant for three reasons. It raises the crucial question of whether Saudi Arabia just won a place under the Pakistani nuclear umbrella. It raises questions about the growing possibility of a pan-Islamic security architecture. And it highlights the ever emerging multipolar world.
In a practical sense, there may be little that is new about Saudi Arabia pocketing protection from Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. Pakistan’s 1998 nuclear test landed it in international isolation. As a member of the nuclear nonproliferation treaty, Saudi Arabia opposed the test, but they offered Pakistan financial support anyway. To help counter U.S. imposed sanctions, Saudi Arabia offered $3.4 billion worth of assistance.
Saudi Arabia’s substantial financial backing of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program may not have come without a string. According to Andrew Small in The China-Pakistan Axis, “a number of accounts suggest that Riyadh… has reached an agreement that would see Pakistani warheads transferred into the Saudi’s possession if they decide that the security situation in their neighborhood requires it.” Gary Sanmore, Obama’s non-proliferation chief, once said, “I do think that the Saudis believe that they have some understanding with Pakistan that, in extremis, they would have claim to acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan.”
But Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella is ambiguous. The new agreement does not state that there is a nuclear umbrella. And official statements have been inconsistent. A senior Saudi official told the Financial Times that “[t]his is a comprehensive defense agreement that will utilize all defensive and military means deemed necessary depending on the specific threat.” Asked whether Saudi Arabia was now under Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella, Pakistan’s defense minister, Khawaja Mohammad Asif, answered that “What we have, and the capabilities we possess, will be made available to (Saudi Arabia) according to this agreement.” In a later interview, though, Asif said that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons were “not on the radar” of the defense agreement. When pressed, he said, “I will refrain from going into the details, but it’s a defense pact and defense pacts are normally not discussed publicly.” When a reporter reminded Asif that journalist Bob Woodward had reported that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman once said, “I don’t need uranium to make a bomb, I will just buy one from Pakistan,” Asif said the quote was not true and that Pakistan is a responsible nation that is not in the business of selling nuclear weapons.
But the question of the nuclear umbrella is not the only important question the agreement raises about defense partnerships. Following the Israeli bombing of Qatar, an extraordinary Emergency Arab-Islamic Summit was held in Qatar. One of the key items discussed at the summit was a NATO style security arrangement for Muslim nations. Leading the call was Egypt. Egyptian president Sisi called for “an Arab-Islamic mechanism” for security cooperation. He said that if any Muslim country is attacked, it must be apparent that there is an umbrella that extends over all Muslim countries. Seconding that call, was Pakistan. Pakistan called for the adoption of “effective deterrent and offensive measures” that are “synchronized.”
The defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, the guardian of the Islamic faith, and Pakistan, the only nuclear armed Muslim nation and the “protector of the Muslim world,” must also be seen through the lens of the growing movement for cooperation and the development of a pan-Islamic security structure.
Beyond the region, the defense agreement also has significant implications for the new multipolar world order. Saudi Arabia is exercising its new found right to have partnerships with multiple poles. Saudi Arabia, who has traditionally fallen under the American protective umbrella, signed a comprehensive defense agreement with Pakistan, who has traditionally fallen under China’s protective umbrella. Under the new multipolar freedoms, Saudi Arabia is not jettisoning the U.S. for Pakistan and China, but diversifying and complementing them. But in a demonstration of their sovereignty and independence, Saudi Arabia did not inform the U.S. of the defense agreement with Pakistan until after it was signed.
The failure of the U.S. to protect Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities from Yemen’s missiles in 2019, and the failure of the presence of a large U.S. military base on Qatar’s soil to protect them from Iranian and Israeli missiles has jolted Saudi Arabia and led to their diversification in a multipolar world. They no longer feel secure relying solely on the U.S. for their security. Saudi Arabia has long warned that U.S. failures to protect them or to grant them a defense pact was stretching their patience. Two years ago, Mohammed bin Salman warned that Saudi Arabia could switch “their armament from America to another place.” One of the largest Muslim armies with the only Muslim nuclear bomb with whom they have enjoyed a security partnership since 1951 seemed an obvious and attractive multipolar complement.
History has not yet seen how a pan-Islamic security structure or a multipolar world will affect the Middle East and the world. But the surprising Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement recently signed by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia will play its part in determining how it will.
