On July 31, Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran. U.S. officials have assessed that the killing was an Israeli operation, and Israeli intelligence officials briefed the U.S. on the details of the operation shortly after it was carried out. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken immediately stated that the operation was “something we were not aware of or involved in.”
One week later, on August 6, Ukraine launched a military incursion across the Russian border into the Kursk region. Ukraine “didn’t share specific information on the Kursk effort until it was well underway.” When White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was asked if the U.S. had “a heads-up at all that that was coming beforehand” or if the U.S. is “playing any kind of leadership role or helping to guide” the incursion, she replied “Absolutely not.”
Assuming the U.S. is telling the truth–Mikhail Podoliak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, says that “there were discussions between partner forces” – these denials of knowledge raise the troubling question of whether the U.S. even knows what its partners are doing. Given that both events may contribute to the derailment of U.S. goals in the two regions, it also raises the scary question of whether the U.S. is in control of the situation. There was a time not long ago that an American green light would have been sought by both Israel and Ukraine before carrying out such consequential strikes.
Though the U.S. has promised to defend Israel against any Iranian reprisal, and though the U.S. has “given [Ukraine its] blessing” and does not “harbor reservations on the incursion,” there is reason to believe that neither operation is consistent with U.S. plans.
When asked if the killing of Haniyeh ruined the chances of a ceasefire, U.S. President Joe Biden answered, “It doesn’t help.” Biden has also said that he is “very concerned” about rising tension and escalation in the Middle East. U.S. officials have repeated those worries, saying that the Biden Administration is “very worried” that the killing “could derail negotiations over the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal and increase the risk of a regional war.” White House spokesperson John Kirby has recently reiterated those concerns about escalation and complication of a ceasefire. Preventing escalation and avoiding being drawn into conflict with Iran have been major policy goals of the Biden administration.
The Ukrainian goals in Russia’s Kursk region are not yet clear, it is also not clear that the incursion into Russian territory is consistent with American strategies or goals in the war in Ukraine. U.S. military strategists have been advising the Ukrainian Armed Forces to stay on the defensive and not yet launch a new offensive in order to minimize the atrocious loss of lives, ammunition and military equipment. The surprise Ukrainian offensive defies that strategy at the cost of two very real risks the U.S. does not desire.
The first is that the short-term victory could lead to long term defeat. The Ukrainian command has opted to redirect its best trained and equipped troops to the incursion into Russian territory that the U.S. considers it is very unlikely to be able to hold. Instead, in time, they are likely to be surrounded and eliminated, leaving Ukraine even more vulnerable along the Donbas front where the real war is being fought. Though the incursion may benefit a short-term narrative that the U.S. appreciates, it may jeopardize the long-term military outcome the U.S. desires.
As in the Middle East, the provocative Ukrainian operation risks escalation of a war the U.S. has sought to contain in order to avoid direct confrontation with Russia and the risk of nuclear war. This most recent Ukrainian provocation strikes at the very heart of that U.S. policy by using U.S. and Western tanks, mobile Patriot batteries, and artillery in an offensive operation against Russia inside Russian territory. Putin has said that “The West is fighting us with the hands of the Ukrainians.”
The Israeli and Ukrainian operations may or may not advance their goals: the long-term outcomes are not yet known. But the goals of America’s partners do not always fully align with the goals of America.
The execution of these two operations that risk important U.S. goals in the regions – including escalations that could draw the U.S. into wars – raises the question of how in control the U.S. is of the situation. It also raises the worrisome question of whether the U.S. even knows what its partners are doing, or are about to do.
Ted Snider is a regular columnist on U.S. foreign policy and history at Antiwar.com and The Libertarian Institute. He is also a frequent contributor to Responsible Statecraft and The American Conservative as well as other outlets. To support his work or for media or virtual presentation requests, contact him at tedsnider@bell.net.
