Though hope, which has raised its head before only to be decapitated, may be too optimistic a word, recent changes in tone, coming from many parties to the conflict, forecast the chance that negotiations to end the war on Ukraine are, at least, peaking above the horizon. Those changes come from recent European elections, upcoming American elections and even from within Ukraine itself.
Donald Trump’s selection of J.D. Vance as his vice-presidential running mate signals a possible change in Ukraine policy should the Republicans win the November election. Trump has already telegraphed that change with his repeated promise that, if elected, he will solve the war in Ukraine before he even takes office.
Suggestions have now emerged as to how he plans to accomplish that. Two key Trump advisers, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, a former CIA analyst, have submitted a plan to him. According to Kellogg, “We tell the Ukrainians, ‘You’ve got to come to the table, and if you don’t come to the table, support from the United States will dry up.’ And you tell Putin, ‘He’s got to come to the table and if you don’t come to the table, then we’ll give Ukrainians everything they need to kill you in the field.'”
The plan conditions continued U.S. support for Ukraine on Ukraine’s commitment to negotiating a diplomatic end to the war. That diplomatic end would include a promise not to offer Ukraine NATO membership for an extended period of time. It would further include a ceasefire along the current battle lines. Ukraine would not have to formally cede the lost territory to Russia but would have to pursue its recovery diplomatically.
The addition of Vance to the Trump ticket enhances the change in tone. Vance has opposed continued aid for Ukraine. “What’s in America’s best interest,” he recently said, “is to accept Ukraine is going to have to cede some territory to the Russians and we need to bring this war to a close.” He added, “The idea that Ukraine was going to throw Russia back to the 1991 border was preposterous – nobody actually believed it.” In April, Vance wrote an opinion piece in The New York Times, arguing that Ukraine needs more soldiers, more weapons and more artillery than the West can conceivably provide. “[A]accepting brute reality would have been most useful last spring, before the Ukrainians launched that extremely costly and unsuccessful military campaign,” he said. He also criticized the absurdity of the Biden administration’s refusal to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
But it is not just the American election that is escorting in a change of tone. Several of the governments that have followed U.S. leadership in Ukraine are at risk of falling. The British government of Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak has already fallen. In Germany, plummeting support has dropped the party of Chancellor Olaf Scholz to third place, while the Christian Democrats now lead the polls. In the recent European Union elections, the Christian Democrats came first with 30% of the vote, while Scholz’s party came third with only 13.9% of the vote. The Canadian government of Justin Trudeau is in serious trouble, unable to win a recent bi-election in even its safest riding.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s party lost to a coalition of left-wing parties with the far-right National Rally on its heels. Macron had hoped to separate himself from the National Rally with an increasingly aggressive stance against Russia in Ukraine. But polling now reveals that “the majority of people in France are eager to end the war, even without an outright Ukrainian victory.” When Europeans, in general, were asked whether NATO should push for a negotiated settlement to the war, more than twice as many respondents said “yes” than said “no.”
Even polling in Ukraine suggests a changing trend toward a diplomatic settlement. There have been reports in the Ukrainian media that an increasing number of Ukrainians support compromising and negotiating an end to the war with Ukraine. An now, new polling suggests that 44% of Ukrainians say that it is time for negotiations with Russia. A year ago, in May, that number was 23%.
After meeting with Trump, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has told the EU that shortly after winning the election, should he win, and before he actually takes office, Trump will begin brokering a peace. Orbán says Trump “has detailed and well-founded plans for this.” That change in U.S. policy, Orbán says, necessitates the EU opening diplomatic discussions with Russia.
In addition to Russia’s advances on the field and the attrition of Ukrainian soldiers, the U.S. election, then, introduces another possible ticking clock on Ukraine’s battlefield hopes and strategy for victory. And there are hints that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may be feeling the pressure of the domestic polls and the U.S. election.
Ukraine has now signaled that it would like to convene another peace summit before November’s election. Reporting in Bloomberg suggests that “The push to organize the meeting before the US elections points to a sense of urgency on the part of Ukraine as it faces the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House.” There is also new reporting that, after returning from the NATO summit, Zelensky said that he has “set a goal that in November we would have a fully ready plan.” He then added, “I think that representatives of Russia should be at the second summit.” That is at least the second time that a possible offer of an invitation to Russia has been proposed but the first time from Zelensky. On June 19, Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said that, at the next peace summit based on Zelensky’s peace plan, “We think it will be possible to invite representative of Russia.”
The changes in tone from a possible Trump victory, from elections in Europe to polling and a possible sense of urgency in Ukraine hold out the slim hope that there may be a course alteration from war to diplomacy on the horizon in Ukraine.
Ted Snider is a regular columnist on U.S. foreign policy and history at Antiwar.com and The Libertarian Institute. He is also a frequent contributor to Responsible Statecraft and The American Conservative as well as other outlets. To support his work or for media or virtual presentation requests, contact him at tedsnider@bell.net.
