“Stopping Iran short of achieving a nuclear weapons capability – by diplomacy if possible; by other means, if necessary – is a vital U.S. interest.”
That’s essentially the message President Bush has been laying on the Europeans, but it’s actually a conclusion contained in a report just issued by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Every four years, the Institute takes it upon itself to convene a Presidential Study Group and "charge" it with drafting a "blueprint" for the next administration’s Middle East policy.
The 53-member group included two former secretaries of state (Alexander Haig and Madeleine Albright), a former CIA director (James Woolsey) a former national security adviser (Sandy Berger) and more than a few Likudniks.
What evidence did the group uncover that Iran was secretly attempting to achieve a nuclear weapons capability under cover of its peaceful nuclear energy program?
Apparently, none at all.
Nevertheless, the group claims that:
"A major reason for heightened concern about Iran’s nuclear program is that failure to resolve the challenge of Iranian proliferation would itself seriously weaken the global nonproliferation regime. If all the effort devoted to the Iran problem by the IAEA, European countries, and the United States still fails to prevent Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons, then many states are likely to draw the conclusion that there are no effective barriers to proliferation."
It’s a Good Thing that the group doesn’t want the global nonproliferation regime to be weakened. But Iran is a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and that treaty makes the IAEA the "Inspectorate" for ensuring that signatories do not seek to acquire nukes under cover of their peaceful nuclear energy programs.
For the record, no NPT signatory has ever "diverted" nuclear materials from their IAEA-safeguarded programs to a clandestine nuke program, much less developed nukes, themselves.
During the past year or so, Iran has given IAEA inspectors unprecedented and unlimited access to go anywhere, see anything, and take environmental samples for analysis.. The IAEA has found no evidence that Iran now has – or ever has had – a nuke development program.
So, why does the group feel that the efforts of European countries and the US are needed? And that question especially needs to be asked since US efforts appear to be counterproductive. In particular, Bush and the Likudniks reject the "clean bill of health" the IAEA has given Iran and are apparently attempting to sabotage the Iran-EU Agreement of 2003.
Well, maybe this section of the group’s report will edify.
"Coordinating with Israel on the issue of Iran’s nuclear program is crucial. Given the Islamic Republic’s stated position denying Israel’s right to exist, its proven track record of terrorism against Israeli and Jewish interests, its active support of groups that kill Israelis and undermine peace diplomacy, and its development of a long-range capability to strike at Israel (a capability that could reach other U.S. allies as well), Israel understandably views Iran’s nuclear programs with the gravest concern.
"Because the United States and Israel may share a similar – though not identical – calculus about the sense of urgency posed by Iranian proliferation and the options to address it, it is important for Washington and Jerusalem to work together, at the highest levels, to ensure that their analysis and their policies are as complementary and coordinated as possible."
Presumably our polices were not that well coordinated back in 1981 when Israel “took out” Osiraq, the Iraqi IAEA-safeguarded research reactor.
Here are excerpts from UN Security Council Resolution 487 condemning the Israeli pre-emptive strike.
"Fully aware of the fact that Iraq has been a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons since it came into force in 1970, that, in accordance with that treaty, Iraq has accepted IAEA safeguards on all its nuclear activities, and that the agency has testified that these safeguards have been satisfactorily applied to date;
"Strongly condemns the military attack by Israel – in clear violation of the Charter of the United Nations and the norms of international conduct;
"Calls upon Israel to refrain in the future from any such acts or threats thereof;
"Further considers that the said attack constitutes a serious threat to the entire IAEA safeguards regime, which is the foundation of the non-proliferation treaty."
If Bush really wants to keep terrorists from getting their hands on nukes, if he really wants to strengthen the NPT-IAEA nuke proliferation-prevention regime, he should ensure that nothing like the Israeli raid on Osiraq ever happens again.
