Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has garnered headlines around the world for his defiance of Washington, as well as his rhetorical grandstanding on Palestinian issues, the existence of Israel, and his government’s alleged support of Shi’ite militias in Iraq.
Still, it appears that Iran’s upcoming parliamentary elections in March will be determined less by debates over the country’s foreign policy than by rising criticism of incompetence and economic mismanagement of conservatives and hardliners in the legislature and in the office of the president.
"Ahmadinejad is in trouble, not only because his economic policies have not worked; he has managed to antagonize almost the entire Iranian elite because of his exclusivist management style," said Farideh Farhi, an independent researcher on Iran and political scientist at the University of Hawaii.
The president and his allies in the Majlis (Iranian parliament) face opposition from prominent reformists led by former President Mohammad Khatami, as well as from conservatives who expect to challenge Ahmadinejad should the president’s hard-line slate fail to win votes.
Khatami’s coalition brings together 21 moderate parties, including the Islamic Iranian Participation Front, Khatami’s Association of Combatant Clerics, and the Executives of Construction Party (Kargozaran), founded by ex-cabinet members from the presidency of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.
Defined as a "pragmatist" or a "centrist," Rafsanjani’s political history suggests the former president is more of an opportunist. But his support for the slate and the inclusion of high-profile candidates, many of whom previously worked in key ministry positions, will make it difficult for the Guardian Council, Iran’s electoral watchdog, to disqualify them.
The hard-line faction was bolstered Thursday when more than 2,000 reformist candidates were disqualified from running, according to the Associated Press. The council will not announce the final slate of approved candidates until March 5, which gives prospective parliamentarians little time to campaign before the March 14 vote.
Out of an initial 7,200 prospective registered candidates, some 5,000 remain in the running, according to Ali Reza Afshar, a top Interior Ministry official. That is a significant decrease from the more than 4,000 reformist candidates disqualified in 2004 by the Guardian Council, an appointed clerical body that is only answerable to Iran’s actual executive power, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran’s 2004 parliamentary crisis fractured the reform movement, leading to a split over whether to boycott or participate in elections. Ahmadinejad, bolstered by populist rhetoric and the support of the paramilitary groups closely linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps and loyal to the supreme leader, became the unlikely winner of the 2005 presidential contest.
"He wasn’t the candidate of the right until right at the end," said Farhi during a talk Friday at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. "Let us note the unpredictability."
A strong showing for centrists and reformists would constitute a rejection of Ahmadinejad and his policies, which, Farhi says, have been described by critics as "expansionary, inflationary, incompetent." It would also enhance the role and stature of parliament, she said. "Everybody feels that the Seventh Majlis has been totally ineffective."
The president himself has been criticized for slowing the pace of privatization, mismanaging the budget, and appointing incompetent bureaucrats. He has been attacked by reformists and centrists such as Rafsanjani, and must contend with conservative opponents who could exploit dissatisfaction with Ahmadinejad to seem more palatable to voters. Khamenei’s enthusiasm for him also appears to have cooled.
For conservatives, the major fight will be over who should lead the party’s election slate.
"Whoever is on top of Tehran’s list becomes the main candidate to challenge Ahmadinejad in the coming presidential elections," Farhi said.
That list includes former nuclear negotiators Hassan Rowhani and Ali Larijani, both powerful conservative politicians, who may appeal to voters dissatisfied with Ahmadinejad. Other possible names include former Foreign Minister Akbar Velayati and former Intelligence Minister Ali Fallahian.
Iran has held 27 elections since the 1979 Revolution, and Iranians participate in them, sometimes to a greater extent than U.S. citizens who vote in U.S. elections. Fifty-five percent of eligible voters turned out for the 2004 presidential election, the highest turnout in 36 years. Iran reported a 60 percent turnout in 2006 elections for local councils and the powerful Assembly of Experts, in which Ahmadinejad’s allies suffered a crushing defeat after a majority of seats went to reformists and conservatives opposing him.
Unlike past elections, talks of boycott do not seem to be resonating, and, contrary to the perceptions abroad, conservatives have managed to control the foreign policy debate, particularly in light of recent developments over Iran’s nuclear program.
A U.S. intelligence estimate released last year said that Iran had – at least temporarily – suspended its nuclear program in 2003, contradicting findings in a similar 2005 report, which assessed that Iran was 10 years away from developing weapons.
"They have managed to push ‘the Great Satan’ back on the nuclear issue,’" said Farhi.
If anything, she said, U.S. foreign policy has succeeded in entrenching the hardliners in power.
"I don’t know if that is the intention," Farhi added.
