New Government of the Netherlands Is a Poster Boy for Europe’s Thirst for War
Warfare seems to be top of mind not only for the Trump administration, but also for the new government of the Netherlands. The coalition agreement of the Jetten I cabinet, installed in late February, presents an unprecedented push towards militarism that includes a doubling of the defense budget, a tax on freedom, royals in fullcamo gear and clear steps towards the reintroduction of forced conscription.
Cabinet Jetten I
“Aan de slag,” which roughly translates to “Let’s get to work,” is the title of the coalition agreement of the new Jetten I government, comprised of the progressive liberals of D66, led by Prime Minister Rob Jetten, the conservative liberals of VVD and the Christian Democrats, CDA. As a rare minority government – the second in the country’s history – it has only 66 out of 150 mandates in Parliament and a mere 22 out of 75 in the Senate and will therefore be completely reliant on opposition support for its various proposals. Nonetheless, it did not shy away from presenting far-reaching objectives in nearly all policy areas, first and foremost defense.
Never mind that “getting to work” might be a bit late for a cabinet comprised of three parties of which at least one or more were part of every single cabinet since 1971 (not counting various predecessors of current parties, which would bring the count back to 1918). Indeed, although D66 is currently the largest party in Parliament with 26 mandates, it was the VVD under current NATO Secretary General, then Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, that led the Netherlands from 2010 until 2024, when he left to take on his current role at NATO.
Hawks lead the way
The echo of Mark Rutte is clearly heard through the new cabinet’s choice of Minister of Defense: none other than his own successor, VVD party leader Dilan Yeşilgöz, now holds the post. Other remarkable choices include the new Minister for Foreign Affairs, CDA-member Tom Berendsen, who was previously an MP in the European Parliament and, with a background in industrial policy, ran his own election campaign (in the 2024 European elections) mainly on stressing the importance of the European defense industry in relation to the war in Ukraine. Moreover, he is known for his hawkish stance on China. This pair is completed by the new Minister for Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation, D66-member Sjoerd Sjoerdsma, who will have to navigate promoting Dutch trade whilst being on both Russian and Chinese sanctions lists simultaneously. Notably, in 2022, Sjoerdsma was also the initiator of an adopted parliamentary motion to increase the Netherlands’ defense spending to NATO’s then 2% of GDP standard (a goal that the country had thus far failed to meet), underlining his forward leaning position in terms of defense.
Support for US interventions
Seeing the pedigree of the current parties, a certain enthusiasm for militarism is not surprising: governments led by the Christian Democrats (CDA) led the Netherlands to Afghanistan and Iraq, and the country has participated in every major US intervention since – if on a small scale. In reaction to the current situation in the Middle East, the cabinet has expressed its “understanding” for the US and Israeli attacks, citing the “enormous threat” posed by the Iranian regime, including its nuclear capacity, its ballistic missiles program and Iran’s support for Russia in Ukraine. In response to the question whether these attacks aren’t a violation of international law, Minister Berendsen has responded that “international law is not the only framework through which to view these attacks.” An interesting take not only for a country that hosts the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice, but more so for a representative of a government whose own coalition agreement cites that: “The Netherlands has the responsibility to actively promote international law,” and that it will “commit itself to counter impunity in international conflicts worldwide, including in Ukraine, Gaza and Sudan,” but not, I suppose, in Iran.
Altogether, you might say that blind support for US warfare is not a big surprise, but the degree to which the Jetten I government has now decided to put militarization at the forefront of its political agenda goes far beyond anything the country has ever seen and hints at preparing for war, rather than defending peace. In the words of the coalition agreement itself, they aim to change the armed forces from a “peace dividend into a fighting power,” thereby perfectly aligning themselves with NATO SG Mark Rutte’s famous quote that it is time to “shift to a wartime mindset.”
Double the budget
Although the Netherlands’ military budget will always remain microscopic in the grand scheme of things, the element that stands out most in the new agreement is a proposed raising of the military budget by USD 22.5 billion, a near doubling from the current USD 26 billion budget. This to reach the new NATO standard of 3.5% of GDP for defense spending as quickly as possible, whilst simultaneously proposing new legislation that would make the NATO standard legally binding. If this legislation passes (and this is likely, given the position of various opposition parties), the Netherlands will become the only member state to have the NATO spending norm set by law. The inevitable implications of this kind of long-term commitment to excessive military spending should be evident to all: ever continuing military build-up, wasteful tax spending to “hit the target” and an outflow of resources to the (primarily foreign) military-industrial complex (the Netherlands’ own production is mostly limited to select and highly technical military gear).
Who pays the price?
Inevitably, this immense increase in military spending comes with a not-so-hidden price tag for the country’s population. The Central Planning Agency (Centraal Planbureau) calculates that under the new plans, the average purchasing power will decrease by at least 0.4% per year, with lower incomes being disproportionately negatively affected. Although the detailed budgets are not yet defined, the coalition agreement proposes ca. USD 19.6 billion of cuts in health care and social spending. This is set against a ca. USD 6.8 billion tax burden increase for companies and private individuals, mainly due to the introduction of a so-called “freedom tax” (vrijheidsbijdrage).
Freedom tax
Indeed, the current coalition proposes to increase taxes, mainly levied from individuals through increased income taxes, to “protect freedom.” Besides the fact that a tax on freedom is self-contradictory, it is impossible to step aside the fact that the Netherlands already knows some of the highest individual taxes in the world. Income taxes of 35.7% (income up to USD 45,800/year) to 49.7% (all income from USD 92,370 upwards) put the country in the top tier of Europe. Added to that, the Netherlands also levies taxes of up to 36% on unrealized capital gains (I repeat, unrealized returns), has a top tier of 40% on inheritance tax, is on the higher end of the VAT spectrum in Europe (21% full rate, 9% reduced) and charges up to 8% transaction taxes when buying or selling private property (up to 10.4% for commercial property). And now the Dutch citizen will be obliged to pay additional taxes for all this ‘freedom.”
Pension age
In another scramble to increase government revenue, the new coalition is set on tying the pension age to life expectancy, which would raise the pension age to ca. 71 years for someone who is currently 30 (up from the already formidable age of 69 that this same group is looking at right now). The fact that this would allow a significant reduction in state pension spending seems to be of much greater importance than the fact that the average healthy life expectancy (i.e. without life-affecting medical complications) is ca. 62.
Cutbacks on diplomacy
Finally, it must be noted that current cutbacks and burden increases are added to the last government’s austerity measures, which already cut over USD 8.45 billion in government spending. Saliently, those measures also hit the Netherlands’ foreign service with a blanket order to cut back 10% to 20%, forcing it to close seven embassies and let go staff across the globe. So much for diplomacy being the leading strategy.
Expansion
The larger defense budget will be primarily invested in expanding manpower and the coalition agreement speaks of an increase to 122,000 personnel (roughly 50% more). The ambition to expand has been an ongoing trend since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, and a target was set by the previous cabinet to increase to 100.000 by 2030. The increase applies to both active personnel and reservists and aims to “build a flexible shell.”
Lack of enthusiasm
However, the ambition to increase military personnel has proven to be quite challenging among a population that has become increasingly reluctant to serve. Indeed, as recent as April 2022 (note, this is after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine), only 16% of Dutch citizens reported being willing to fight for their country. These numbers were quite constant for years (for instance, in 2014, 15% reported readiness to fight) and it is only most recently, after an onslaught of pro-war policies and messaging, that this number went up to 49%, but only in case of a direct attack on the Netherlands.
Indeed, the ability of the Ministry of Defense (MoD) to find the tens of thousands of recruits it is looking for, has been a recurrent theme in the Dutch political debate. To this end, both the current and several previous governments (Jetten I is the third government in five years) have resorted to indoctrination, enticement and are now openly leaning towards force.
Fearmongering in every household
One of the finest pieces of indoctrination recently was a booklet that every Dutch received late last year, titled “How to prepare for an emergency,” which outlines how to prepare your household for a 72-hour emergency situation. In the very first chapter it explains why this booklet is being presented now:
‘In the Netherlands we live in freedom and safety. But various other parts of the world are unsafe. Some of these places, like Ukraine, are close to home.’
‘Our safety is under threat. While the Netherlands is currently not at war, we are not at peace either. The Dutch armed forces are receiving more funding to better protect us. Other countries are trying to influence us, for example by spreading fake news on the internet or by attacking critical systems. They are already compiling information on our power cables, internet cables and gas pipelines in order to be able to damage them.
Take from this what you may, but being neither at peace nor at war is an interesting legal status to say the least. And presenting your increased military budget as a reason that we all must prepare for an emergency might sound contradictory, until you skip one page further and find that in the visual depiction of the threats facing the Netherlands, the tanks are actually moving outward (see image). How and why fake news would cause a physical emergency is not specified nor is the ‘they’ that have allegedly already infiltrated all our critical systems. Yet, this went out to 8.4 million households, quietly breeding fear.
Screenshot
Royals to the rescue
Another salient indoctrination campaign of late has been the enlisting of both the Crown Princess of the Netherlands, Princess Amalia, as well as her mother, Queen Máxima, as reservists. The Princess joined the “Defensity College,” a work-study program for students, and has since reached the rank of corporal. Meanwhile her mother enlisted as a regular reservist (at age 54) and holds the rank of soldier. As the first Dutch female royals to do so, footage of the Queen and Princess in full camo gear enthusiastically participating in military exercises made the rounds of international media. Allegedly, both interest and applications for “Defensity College” and the general reservists shot up right after due to the “Amalia– and Máxima-effect.”
Now, the message this sends is beyond any reasonable understanding. For one, no Kingdom – however antiquated the notion – should ever want to have to send their female royals into active duty, especially if they are the primary responsible for providing an heir to the Kingdom (as is the case for the Crown Princess). Moreover, how far down the list would you have to go before a 54-year-old woman with no relevant experience would be considered a reasonable choice to call up for duty? No, this is a desperate ploy to increase recruitment numbers as it ties the only consistent representatives of the Dutch state to the military (effectively saying “A true patriot serves”) and enlarges the scope of the target audience beyond the usual fighting age men.
Focus on women
In fact, the latest defense strategy (Defensienota 2024) specifically states that the MoD will do ‘whatever it takes’ to fulfil the expansion target. The main point of action? To “enthuse the entire Dutch population,” first and foremost by putting an “explicit focus on target groups that are currently unintentionally out of reach,” the most important of which: women. Case in point, when you visit the MoD employment website “Joining as a woman” is actually the first option you see and the only group-specific selection choice. Notably, this is part of an ongoing trend, as the Netherlands quietly expanded its (currently dormant) conscription law in early 2020 to include women, an occurrence that passed almost without any public debate and was then quickly buried due to the start of COVID.
Recruiting minors
Since you cannot fill a whole army with members of the royal family and women, the current government has also decided to double down youth recruitment, one of the main tools for which is the recently introduced ‘service year’ (Dienjaar). This year of full-time military employment entices youth to join the military as means of “self-development” and “a paid alternative to a gap year,” in the hope that they will stay on after. For this programme, the MoD actively recruits minors with the website advertising that you can apply as young as 17 and 6 months.
Cannon fodder
Another push for youth recruitment recently came from the Netherlands’ social security agency (UWV), which came out with a report stating that based on their ‘independent analysis’ (yet conducted in “co-operation with the MoD”), there are great “recruitment opportunities” among the 19,000 currently registered unemployed individuals under 35. This opportunity lies not only in the fact that they fall within the military age limits, but also because “almost 60% of them have only entry level vocational training,” which “isn’t necessarily a hindrance because military functions do not always require an educational minimum.” A nice way to say: here’s your cannon fodder.
Enforcement
Moving from indoctrination and enticement to potential force, the youth recruitment effort will now, per plans of Jetten I, be combined with the introduction of a mandatory questionnaire that will be sent to every 17-year-old and “newcomer in the Netherlands.” This questionnaire, based on a Scandinavian model, asks them how interested they are in joining the military and lays out their options. Meanwhile, the coalition agreement also clearly states (in fact, it does so in the same paragraph) that if “planned measures will not have the desired effect,” it will consider “further steps such as the reintroduction of selective forced conscription.” Seeing the current global instability and the fact that the dormant status of the Netherlands’ conscription legislation means activating it would be relatively straightforward, the opposition has already posed questions about these plans in parliament. The official response? The cabinet “hopes that forced conscription will not be necessary, but cannot exclude it.” Moreover, “in case things do go wrong” (i.e. if war breaks out), the cabinet “could certainly move straight to forced conscription again.” And just like that, the door has been opened to forced recruitment, including of women.
Looking ahead
Given the still modest capacity of the Dutch armed forces (also partially due to the unprecedented transfer of military hardware to Ukraine), it does not seem likely that the Netherlands will join in on any large-scale operations quite just yet (although never say never). Nonetheless, the fact remains that here we have a country that is generally considered a frontrunner in Europe, the host of the ICC, the ultimate champion of international law and a country that has always underlined the benefit of trade and cooperation over conflict, that has now made an explicit choice for militarism. With their “at all costs” mentality and the decision to put the interests of the military clearly above those of the Dutch population, Jetten I has set a tone that signals a significant shift in the focus and priorities of the Netherlands as such and of Europe as a whole, even if it wouldn’t come to blows.
Julie Jojo Nielen is a diplomat of Dutch and Swiss origin with a background in Russian Studies and Energy Politics. She has served as political and economic advisor to various organizations and Embassies across the Eurasian region, including in Russia, Uzbekistan, and Georgia. The views expressed in this article are strictly her own. Contact: julienielen@gmail.com.
