Conn Hallinan

The Trump administration’s new National Defense Strategy is being touted as a sea change in US foreign policy – a shift from the “war on terrorism” to “great power competition,” a line that would not be out of place in the years leading up to World War I. But is the shift really a major … Continue reading “The US Returns to ‘Great Power Competition,’ With a Dangerous New Edge”

When President Donald Trump bragged that his nuclear “button” was bigger and more efficient than North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un’s “button,” he was perpetuating the myth that the leaders of nuclear-armed nations control their weapons. But you do not have to be Trump, Kim, Vladimir Putin, Theresa May, Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi, Mamnoon Hussain, or … Continue reading “Nuclear War: A Thousand Buttons”

With the world focused on the scary possibility of war on the Korean Peninsula, not many people paid much attention to a series of naval exercises this past July in the Malacca Strait, a 550-mile long passage between Sumatra and Malaysia through which pass over 50,000 ships a year. With President Trump and North Korean … Continue reading “Asia’s Other Nuclear Standoff”

The splintering of the powerful Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) into warring camps – with Qatar, supported by Turkey and Iran, on one side, and Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), supported by Egypt, on the other – has less to do with disagreements over foreign policy and religion than with internal political … Continue reading “The Tortured Politics Behind the Persian Gulf Crisis”

At a time of growing tensions between nuclear powers – Russia and NATO in Europe, and the US, North Korea, and China in Asia – Washington has quietly upgraded its nuclear weapons arsenal to create, according to three leading American scientists, “exactly what one would expect to see, if a nuclear-armed state were planning to … Continue reading “These Nuclear Breakthroughs Are Endangering the World”

At first glance, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s drive to create an executive presidency with almost unlimited power through a nationwide referendum looks like a slam-dunk. The man hasn’t lost an election since 1994, and he’s loaded the dice and stacked the deck for the April 15 vote. Using last summer’s failed coup as a shield, … Continue reading “Erdogan Isn’t as Strong as He Looks – That’s What Makes Him Dangerous”

“Chaos,” “dismay,” “radically inept” – those are just a few of the recent headlines analyzing Donald Trump’s foreign policy. In truth, disorder would seem to be the strategy of the day. Picking up the morning newspaper or tuning on the national news sometimes feels akin to opening up a basket filled with spitting cobras and … Continue reading “Is Trump Moderating on Foreign Policy? Not in the Least”

In his Jan. 13 testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, secretary of state nominee Rex Tillerson made an extraordinary comment concerning China’s activities in the hotly disputed South China Sea. The United States, he said, must “send a clear signal that, first, the island-building stops,” adding that Beijing’s “access to the those islands is … Continue reading “How Trump Could Blunder Into War With China”

President-elect Donald Trump’s off the cuff, chaotic approach to foreign policy had at least one thing going for it, even though it was more the feel of a blind pig rooting for acorns than a thought-out international initiative. In speaking with Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, the New York Times reported, Trump said he wanted … Continue reading “A Global Nuclear Winter: Avoiding the Unthinkable in India and Pakistan”

“We have fallen into a self-defeating spiral of reaction and counterterror,” writes Mark Danner in his new book Spiral: Trapped in the Forever War. “Our policies, meant to extirpate our enemies, have strengthened and perpetuated them.” Danner – an award winning journalist, professor, and member of the Council on Foreign Relations who has covered war … Continue reading “America’s Spiral Into Permanent War Seems More Foolish Than Ever”