ARBIL, Kurdistan – The afternoon call to prayer sounds on the final Friday before election on Sunday, and thousands of Kurds across Northern Iraq file into their mosques. At each one of them, imams appointed by the ruling Kurdish factions give the same message: go out and vote.
"Vote, vote, and vote for all the martyrs who helped you get your freedom," a middle aged imam preaches in Quritan, a small town southwest of the regional capital Arbil. "Vote for the people who were killed by Saddam in al-Anfal. This election is our chance to win our freedom."
In the afternoon after the sermons are over, Arbil too is in full election mode. The red, green, and white Kurdish national flag is everywhere. Half the cars fly the flag, and it is draped over government buildings. Speakers at street corners blare out the same message. "Hurry, hurry, get ready to vote for the Kurdistan list."
Across the border, Turkish leaders have been listening to these voices carefully.
Within Northern Iraq, the Arab and Turkomen (ethnic Turks in Iraq) minorities have been expressing concern. This is especially acute in the multi-ethnic, oil-rich city of Kirkuk. The status of Kirkuk is at present uncertain, but Kurds are pushing to make it a Kurd-administered city.
The leading Arab party there has announced it is boycotting the elections. The Iraqi Turkomen Front has been holding daily rallies against the elections commission’s decision last week to allow about 100,000 Kurdish refugees to vote in Kirkuk.
That concern has now registered in neighboring Turkey. It is concerned for the Turkomen, and it is concerned about the emerging power of Kurds.
Turkey is home to the largest Kurdish population in the world – about 20 million. But Kurdish language is virtually banned in schools in Turkey, and Kurdish radio and television are highly controlled despite some recent decisions to ease restrictions.
Turkey has long held fears that a strong Kurdish government in Iraq could encourage Kurds within Turkey to demand similar autonomy.
The Turkish military has sounded warnings about any Kurdish control of Kirkuk. "We have repeatedly said that such a situation may make the election results in Kirkuk disputable and make it almost impossible to find a fair and lasting solution for Kirkuk," Gen. Ilker Basbug, the second most powerful military leader in Turkey told a news conference this week.
"Moreover, we are concerned that such developments will pose a threat to Iraq’s territorial and political unity and create a great security problem in the region," he said. "Such a development will also create a serious security problem for Turkey."
Turkey already maintains a military base with an estimated 5,000 soldiers near the Northern Iraqi city Dohuk. The Turkish government has – in the past – repeatedly threatened to invade Iraq if ethnic Turks in Iraq are threatened, or if Kurds try to take control of Kirkuk.
"If the people of Kirkuk endorse the election results," Gen. Basburg said, "we will conclude that no major problem exists. But if the opposite happens, then we will see that we have differences."
But Kurds in Iraq laugh at the possibility of Turkish military intervention.
"Such a step might have been possible before the U.S. invasion, but now that 150,000 American troops occupy Iraq, a Turkish invasion would put their northern neighbor in direct confrontation with the world’s only superpower," says Kurdish political scientist Dr. Azad Ahmed.
A native of Diyarbakir in Turkey, Ahmed moved to Arbil with his family two years ago so his children would learn Kurdish in school. He believes that eventually Turkey will have to come to grips with Kurdish independence.
"Kurdish people do not see themselves as part of Iraq, but as part of Kurdistan, so they will vote for Kurds to be representatives in Baghdad and also vote for their representation in the Kurdish regional government," he said. "This will make any Kurdistan government a legitimate government to represent all the people in (Iraqi) Kurdistan."
Ahmed says this would give Kurds a strong negotiating hand to expand the administration of the Kurdistan regional government to Kirkuk after the election.
At that point, the Turkish Army would have to weigh its options.
(Inter Press Service)
