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In the past few days, I received an Israeli briefing document outlining Israel’s war plans against Iran. The document was passed to me by a high-level Israeli source who received it from an IDF officer. My source, in fact, wrote to me that normally he would not leak this sort of document, but “These are not normal times. I’m afraid Bibi and Barak are dead serious.”
The reason the source leaked it is to expose the arguments and plans advanced by the Bibi-Barak two-headed warrior. Neither the IDF leaker, my source, nor virtually any senior military or intelligence officer wants this war. While whoever wrote this briefing paper had use of IDF and intelligence data, I don’t believe the IDF wrote it. It feels more likely it came from the shop of National Security Adviser Yaakov Amidror, a former general, settler true believer, and Bibi confidant. It could also have been produced by Defense Minister Barak, another war booster.
I’ve translated the document from Hebrew with the help of Dena Shunra.
Before laying out the document, I want to place it in context. If you’ve been reading this blog, you’ll know that after Bibi’s IDF service he became the marketing director for a furniture company. Recent revelations have suggested that he may have also served in some capacity either formally or informally in the Mossad during that period.
This document is a more sophisticated version of selling bedroom sets and three-piece sectionals. The only difference is that this marketing effort could lead to the death of thousands.
This is Bibi’s sales pitch for war. Its purpose is to be used in meetings with members of the Shminiya, the eight-member security cabinet which currently finds a 4-3 majority opposed to an Iran strike. Bibi uses this sales pitch to persuade the recalcitrant ministers of the cool, clean, refreshing taste of war. My source informs me that it has also been shared in confidence with selected journalists who are in the trusted inner media circle (who, oh who might they be?).
This is shock and awe, Israel-style. It is Bibi’s effort to convince high-level Israeli officials that Israel can prosecute a pure technology war that involves relatively few human beings (Israeli human beings, that is) who may be put in harm’s way and will certainly cost few lives of IDF personnel.
Bibi’s sleight of hand here involves no mention whatsoever of an Iranian counterattack against Israel. The presumption must be that the bells and whistles of all those marvelous new weapons systems will decapitate Iran’s war-making ability and render it paralyzed. The likelihood of this actually happening is nearly nil.
There will be those who will dispute the authenticity of this document. I’m convinced it is what my source claims, based on his prior track record and the level of specificity offered in the document. It references cities by name and the facilities they contain. It names new weapons systems including one Israel supposedly hasn’t even shared with the U.S.
No, it’s real. Or I should say that while it’s real, it is the product of the Israeli dream factory that manufactures threats and then creates fabulist military strategies to address them. The dream factory always breaks the hearts of the families of those whose members fall victim to it. It never produces the result it promises, nor will it do so here.
Remember Bush-era shock and awe? Remember those promises of precision-guided cruise missiles raining death upon Saddam Hussein’s Iraq? Remember Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” ceremony on the deck of the USS Lincoln, only six or seven years premature? Remember the promises of decisive victory? Remember 4,000 U.S. dead, not to mention hundreds of thousands of Iraqis?
Now, think of what an Israeli war against Iran could turn into. Think about how this sanitized version of 21st-century war could turn into a protracted, bloody conflict closer to the nine-year Iran-Iraq War:
The Israeli attack will open with a coordinated strike, including an unprecedented cyberattack which will totally paralyze the Iranian regime and its ability to know what is happening within its borders. The Internet, telephones, radio and television, communications satellites, and fiber optic cables leading to and from critical installations — including underground missile bases at Khorramabad and Isfahan — will be taken out of action. The electrical grid throughout Iran will be paralyzed, and transformer stations will absorb severe damage from carbon fiber munitions which are finer than a human hair, causing electrical short circuits whose repair requires their complete removal. This would be a Sisyphean task in light of cluster munitions which would be dropped, some time-delayed and some remote-activated through the use of a satellite signal.
A barrage of tens of ballistic missiles would be launched from Israel toward Iran. 300-km ballistic missiles would be launched from Israeli submarines in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf. The missiles would not be armed with unconventional warheads [WMDs], but rather with high-explosive ordnance equipped with reinforced tips designed specially to penetrate hardened targets.
The missiles will strike their targets — some exploding above ground like those striking the nuclear reactor at Arak, which is intended to produce plutonium and tritium — and the nearby heavy-water production facility; the nuclear fuel production facilities at Isfahan and facilities for enriching uranium-hexafluoride. Others would explode underground, as at the Fordow facility.
A barrage of hundreds of cruise missiles will pound command-and-control systems, research and development facilities, and the residences of senior personnel in the nuclear and missile development apparatus. Intelligence gathered over years will be utilized to completely decapitate Iran’s professional and command ranks in these fields.
After the first wave of attacks, which will be timed to the second, the “Blue and White” radar satellite, whose systems enable us to perform an evaluation of the level of damage done to the various targets, will pass over Iran. Only after rapidly decrypting the satellite’s data will the information be transferred directly to warplanes making their way covertly toward Iran. These IAF planes will be armed with electronic warfare gear previously unknown to the wider public, not even revealed to our U.S. ally. This equipment will render Israeli aircraft invisible. Those Israeli war planes which participate in the attack will damage a short list of targets which require further assault.
Among the targets approved for attack: Shahab 3 and Sejil ballistic missile silos, storage tanks for chemical components of rocket fuel, industrial facilities for producing missile control systems, centrifuge production plants, and more.
While the level of specificity in this document is, in some senses, impressive, in one critical aspect it is deficient. Muhammad Sahimi points out that the current chief of the Revolutionary Guards, when he assumed his position in 2007, deliberately addressed the issue of overcentralization of command-and-control by dividing the nation into 31 districts. Each of these has its own independent command-and-control facilities and mechanisms. So Israel wouldn’t be able to knock out a single facility and paralyze the IRG. It would need to knock out 31 separate sets of facilities, a much harder task.
There seems also to be an assumption that Iran’s leaders and nuclear specialists live nice domestic lives and that Israeli intelligence knows where they all live and can easily target them. In truth, the most senior Iranian military and scientific figures live clandestine lives, and it’s hard for me to believe even the Mossad knows where they are and how to target them.
So it appears that Netanyahu believes he’s fighting Saddam circa 2003. During that war, the Iraqi Revolutionary Guards were centralized and knocking out one command-and-control center could decapitate the entire military apparatus. But Iran has learned from Saddam’s mistakes. It isn’t fighting the last war as Bibi appears to be. It is preparing for the next one. While Israel may have new tricks up its sleeve that no one in the world has yet seen, if it doesn’t understand the nature of the enemy, its defenses, its structure, etc., then it can’t win.
Here’s the link for my portion of the BBC Newshour segment in which I was interviewed about the Israeli government document.
Israelis are posting a claim that the document I published is identical to a post published at Fresh a few days ago. It is not. My original IDF source may have leaked the post to someone at Fresh. But whoever published it there embellished it with much material that is not in the original document. I can’t ascribe motives to whoever published it at Fresh, but much of it appears fanciful and isn’t in the original document.
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Does Israel even have hundreds of cruise missiles with the range to reach Iran? Israel tried to obtain cruise missiles from the Clinton government, and were denied. At five million dollars each, it would stand to reason that someone would have noticed if they'd got hold of hundreds of them.
As for their submarines: they have four, each of which can carry a maximum of sixteen cruise missiles, if they care to operate in a defenseless mode, with no torpedoes at all. And then they'd need to sail for a week back to Israel to rearm. So we're not talking hundreds there- we're talking about dozens.
And what kind of damage can you do with a five-hundred pound cruise missile warhead? That's not a very big bang, not when you're talking about a place like Fordo. That won't get through much in the way of concrete.
The challenge to the veracity of the document would be this reference to "300-km ballistic missiles.". The Dolphins Germany supplied to Israel are most certainly not ballistic-missile submarines. They carry cruise missiles only.
Would that kind of a mistake be present in a military briefing document prepared for the Israeli cabinet?
Does Israel even have hundreds of cruise missiles with the range to reach Iran? Israel tried to obtain cruise missiles from the Clinton government, and were denied. At five million dollars each, it would stand to reason that someone would have noticed if they'd got hold of hundreds of them.
As for their submarines: they have four, each of which can carry a maximum of sixteen cruise missiles, if they care to operate in a defenseless mode, with no torpedoes at all. And then they'd need to sail for a week back to Israel to rearm. So we're not talking hundreds there- we're talking about dozens.
And what kind of damage can you do with a five-hundred pound cruise missile warhead? That's not a very big bang, not when you're talking about a place like Fordo. That won't get through much in the way of concrete.
The challenge to the veracity of the document would be this reference to "300-km ballistic missiles.". The Dolphins Germany supplied to Israel are most certainly not ballistic-missile submarines. They carry cruise missiles only.
Would that kind of a mistake be present in a military briefing document prepared for the Israeli cabinet?
Does Israel even have hundreds of cruise missiles with the range to reach Iran? Israel tried to obtain cruise missiles from the Clinton government, and were denied. At five million dollars each, it would stand to reason that someone would have noticed if they'd got hold of hundreds of them.
As for their submarines: they have four, each of which can carry a maximum of sixteen cruise missiles, if they care to operate in a defenseless mode, with no torpedoes at all. And then they'd need to sail for a week back to Israel to rearm. So we're not talking hundreds there- we're talking about dozens.
And what kind of damage can you do with a five-hundred pound cruise missile warhead? That's not a very big bang, not when you're talking about a place like Fordo. That won't get through much in the way of concrete.
The challenge to the veracity of the document would be this reference to "300-km ballistic missiles.". The Dolphins Germany supplied to Israel are most certainly not ballistic-missile submarines. They carry cruise missiles only.
Would that kind of a mistake be present in a military briefing document prepared for the Israeli cabinet?
I agree. I would like to see anyone from the military analysts' side go through this and confirm or deny whether Netanyahu is trying to sell too hard. Guess he'll just go for the firestarter, then say "oh but I never said our capabilities would be ready NOW, so indeed there is still some work to do", then wait for the US to help out?
This is redolent of a Congolese warlord telling a 15 year old drugged up draftee that if he pins these three hairs from a lion's mane on his shirt he cannot be killed or wounded and that all his enimies will be paralyzed with fright and die from his mighty blows.Bibi went to Harvard but as my granny told me as I headed off to an asylum known as a college: No amount of education can cure true ignorance.
This is just what used to be called "bar talk" – fantasizing from a guy with a Don Knotts physique about how he is going to "whip everyone's ass". The bottom line is that Israel has a population of 5 million Jews and about 3 million victimized Palestinians whose loyalty is not to be counted on trying to destroy a unified nation of about 80 million Iranians. After the first sucker punch (the technical shock and awe) and the fight degrades to the usual rolling around on the floor, punching and biting, kicking and gouging, Israel is going to wish it had minded its own business.
Of course, Israel is counting on the US to step in and break up the fight (after Israel gets to throw the sucker punch). But what if Russia tells the US to keep out of it? Then it will be as Chester Riley (old TV situation comedy) used to ruefully exclaim, " Oh, what a revolting development this turned out to be!" Hopefully some Israelis have thought of that – as for our idiot Congress, don't count on it.
This is just what used to be called "bar talk" – fantasizing from a guy with a Don Knotts physique about how he is going to "whip everyone's ass". The bottom line is that Israel has a population of 5 million Jews and about 3 million victimized Palestinians whose loyalty is not to be counted on trying to destroy a unified nation of about 80 million Iranians. After the first sucker punch (the technical shock and awe) and the fight degrades to the usual rolling around on the floor, punching and biting, kicking and gouging, Israel is going to wish it had minded its own business.
Of course, Israel is counting on the US to step in and break up the fight (after Israel gets to throw the sucker punch). But what if Russia tells the US to keep out of it? Then it will be as Chester Riley (old TV situation comedy) used to ruefully exclaim, " Oh, what a revolting development this turned out to be!" Hopefully some Israelis have thought of that – as for our idiot Congress, don't count on it.
"My source informs me that it has also been shared in confidence with selected journalists who are in the trusted inner media circle".
Or in other words the document was targeted for consumption abroad, trying to make the threat seem more deadly, immediate and powerful that it ever will be. It's more probably Israel will target just one or two facilities, gaining a few more years in their eyes.
"I can’t ascribe motives to whoever published it at Fresh"
That's just evidence you've been given a canard. And Fresh got a fresh, enhanced version!
Slverstein is right though: it's what comes after this supposed raid what's being prepared for by all sides.
"My source informs me that it has also been shared in confidence with selected journalists who are in the trusted inner media circle".
Or in other words the document was targeted for consumption abroad, trying to make the threat seem more deadly, immediate and powerful that it ever will be. It's more probable that Israel will target just one or two facilities, gaining a few more years in their eyes. If she would do anything at all at this stage.
"I can’t ascribe motives to whoever published it at Fresh"
That's just evidence you've been given a canard. And Fresh got a fresh, enhanced version!
Slverstein is right though: it's what comes after this supposed raid what's being prepared for by all sides.
The initial stage of paralyzing communication systems and Iran's electrical grid sounds like an "electromagnetic pulse" (EMP) attack. This would entail exploding a thermonuclear bomb several hundred kilometers above the country. Israel has this capability. The consequences for Iran's civilian population would be horrific. This action may provoke other countries like Russia and Pakistan to enter the conflict. Bibi is insane if he thinks that Israel can deal with the consequences.
Bibi is trying to get our elected officials pass laws which will have our kids storming the beach with the first fire cracker lite by the mossad. Israel is now saying it will destroy Lebanon to stop the rockets. I thought we just gave the IDF several billion dollars of intercept rockets?
Does this mean that the IDF lied about the rockets and that is why Israel would not waist their money on a bad rocket system.
It is time to cut Israel loose. We cannot trust them.
bibi grew up on the mainline of rich Philadelphia. Bibi keeps telling stories of his family's suffering. Bibi's father was an early immigrant to Israel who elected not to raise his family in the nation he and his kind created. Bibi is a perswon who would get all the American killed to advance his political objectives. Bibi believes he deserves it for all his suffering. The problem for bibi is he believes his stories. I can fully understand his desire to free J. Pollard. Two men who believed they suffered in real life a lot more than they did.
Of the two and a half million Jews seeking refuge from the Nazis between 1935 and 1943, less than 9% went to settle in Palestine The vast majority, 75%, went to the Soviet Union. In the mid-70's, more people emigrated out of Israel' than came in.
The truth why they need to start wars. No one would live in Israel except for the big profit from starting wars then not fighting with their people.
At the risk of boring everyone, let me amplify about this reference to the old show, "Life of Riley". Chester Riley was this blue-collar schlub who always had grandiose plans which always ran into reality and Life generally handed his ass to him. In the 50s that was a common theme relayed to us by the generation that had endured the Great Depression and the long slog of WWII. They learned to be realistic and to keep their grasp within limits of their reach. Today the Boomers and Millenials have no time for that lesson of humility – they believe in their own exceptionalism and triumphalism and indominable will power. I guess they too will have to have their ass handed to them. In the case of Israel, it couldn't happen to a better class of jerks.
Nope, it's the same trick as done in Iraq 1, Serbia and Iraq 2: Attack energy and communication nodes conventionally, maybe with "special ordinance" like fuel-air and those carbon fibres to make transformers blow up. The consequences for Iran's civilian population would indeed be horrific, but there is no need for a nuke-powered EMP (which does not necessarily need fusion bombs)
Nope, it's the same trick as done in Iraq 1, Serbia and Iraq 2: Attack energy and communication nodes conventionally, maybe with "special ordinance" like fuel-air and those carbon fibres to make transformers blow up. The consequences for Iran's civilian population would indeed be horrific, but there is no need for a nuke-powered EMP (which does not necessarily need fusion bombs)
The real key for Bibi is to start the war in such a way as to get Uncle Sam involved. Although an American war against Iran will not be easy and the civilian population will suffer, I have little doubt about the military outcome. Of course from the strategic point of view the war will be an absolute disaster for the United States.
The US isn't going to risk a conflict – not only with Iran – but also China and Russia, just because "Paranoid Bibi" is overeager to bite off more than he can chew. First of all, the US us bankrupt; it cannot afford such a misadventure, with the Afghanistan debacle still faging.
Most of all, the US public is sick and tired of all this waste on unnecessary, illegal war, while the nation's infrastructure is crumbling from neglect.
Does the brain-dead Congress think at all that "We'll stand by Israel, no matter what" BS will fly? These politicians are totally deluded if they do; since, a good majority of the people have already awakened to Bibi's lies.
Provided this actually came to pass, who does the dirty work? Certainly not the IDF, whose specialty is bombing civilian infrastructure. Taking on people who fight back is not really their thing. As a matter of fact, I doubt they would even dare send any of their precious troops to do any clean up.
The real threat of Iran responding in the weeks and months after Israel hitting them first will finally provide the Israeli fanatics a legitimate reason to run and cry to US Kongress with their hand out.
That's verbatim from your source? Not credible. In just the the first sentence "The Israeli attack" "unprecedented cyberattack" "totally paralyze" all indicate it is written by a hack.