Conn Hallinan

After 18 years of unchallenged power and success, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan suddenly finds himself in the middle of several domestic and foreign crises with no obvious way out. It’s unfamiliar ground for a master politician who’s moved nimbly from the margins of power to becoming the undisputed leader of the largest economy in … Continue reading “‘Revenge of the Kurds’: Erdogan’s Missteps Are Piling Up”

The recent decision by the Hague-based International Court of Justice that the Chagos Islands – with its huge U.S. military base at Diego Garcia – are being illegally occupied by the United Kingdom (UK) has the potential to upend the strategic plans of a dozen regional capitals, ranging from Beijing to Riyadh. For a tiny … Continue reading “Diego Garcia: The ‘Unsinkable Carrier’ Springs a Leak”

The recent military clash between India and Pakistan underscores the need for the major nuclear powers – the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, and France – finally to move toward fulfilling their obligations under the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The Treaty’s purpose was not simply to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, but to serve … Continue reading “Nuclear Powers Need To Disarm Before It’s Too Late”

Keeping track of the Trump administration’s foreign policy is like trying to track a cat on a hot tin roof: We’re pulling out of Syria (not right away). We’re leaving Afghanistan (sometime in the future). Mexico is going to pay for a wall (no, it isn’t). Saudi Arabia, Russia, the European Union, China, Turkey, North … Continue reading “Could Trump Really Launch a War With Iran?”

Want another thing to keep you up at night? Consider a conversation between longtime Middle East reporter Reese Erlich and former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Charles Freeman, Jr. on the people currently directing the Trump administration’s policy toward Iran. Commenting on National Security Advisor John Bolton’s defense of the invasion of Iraq, Freeman says … Continue reading “A Vital Primer on the Push for War in Iran”

The decision by the Trump administration to withdraw from the Intermediate Nuclear Force Agreement (INF) appears to be part of a broader strategy aimed at unwinding over 50 years of agreements to control and limit nuclear weapons, returning to an era characterized by the unbridled development weapons of mass destruction. Terminating the INF treaty – … Continue reading “Unwrapping Armageddon: The Erosion of Nuclear Arms Control”

The Syrian civil war has always been devilishly complex, with multiple actors following different scripts, but in the past few months it appeared to be winding down. The Damascus government now controls 60 percent of the country and the major population centers, the Islamic State has been routed, and the rebels opposed to Syrian President … Continue reading “The Syrian Chess Board”

“Boxing the compass” is an old nautical term for locating the points on a magnetic compass in order to set a course. With the erratic winds blowing out of Washington these days, countries all over Asia and the Middle East are boxing the compass and reevaluating traditional foes and old alliances. India and Pakistan have … Continue reading “As Washington Vacillates, Asia’s Alliances Are Shifting”

The outcome of the July 11-12 NATO meeting in Brussels got lost amid the media’s obsession with President Donald Trump’s bombast, but the “Summit Declaration” makes for sober reading. The media reported that the 28-page document “upgraded military readiness,” and was “harshly critical of Russia,” but there wasn’t much detail beyond that. But details matter, … Continue reading “It’s Time for NATO to Go the Way of the Warsaw Pact”

When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for a presidential and parliamentary election June 24 – jumping the gun by more than a year – the outcome seemed foreordained. After all, the country is under a state of emergency. Erdogan has imprisoned more than 50,000 of his opponents, dismissed 140,000 from their jobs, jailed a … Continue reading “Erdogan Wants to Be Turkey’s Lone Strongman. What If He Gets What He Wants?”